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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
“Fallen Angels”
Evan Zimmerman
Primetime Tony Awards Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: June 4, 2026): Will Broadway celebrate teen vampires, children’s book authors with sadistic streaks, ballroom dancers in touch with their feline side and a politician who picks the wrong woman to shtup?
Those are some of the questions facing the theater community as it gears up for the 79th Tony Awards. That’s when audiences will find out if “The Lost Boys,” a rock musical based on the 1987 cult horror film; “Giant,” a drama about Roald Dahl’s antisemitism; and radical revivals of “Cats” and “Oedipus” will dominate Broadway’s biggest night.
“The Lost Boys” and the stage adaptation of the Apple TV series “Schmigadoon!” lead the field with 12 nods each, followed by the musical revival of “Ragtime,” with 11 nominations. Then there’s “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman,” which overcame controversy around producer Scott Rudin — who returned to Broadway after being ostracized in the wake of bullying allegations — to become the year’s most nominated play, with nine nods. Will voters declare “Death of a Salesman” the best revival of a play, or will the Rudin backlash prove too intense?
That’s not the only dilemma facing voters as a wide-open awards race hurtles toward its conclusion on June 7, when the Tonys air. Here’s a look at the shows that will have a lot to celebrate, the productions that could score upset victories and the performances that deserve recognition.
Final Tony voting concludes Friday, June 5, at noon ET. The 79th annual Tony Awards will air live coast-to-coast Sunday, June 7, on CBS and stream on Paramount+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET, with Pink hosting from Radio City Music Hall.
Top projected winners (productions): To be added
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Musical
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In what may be the evening’s tightest race, “Two Strangers,” a heartfelt, often hilarious, teeny-tiny West End import, should edge out “The Lost Boys,” a technically audacious big-budget crowd-pleaser. Neither is perfect, but “Two Strangers” comes closer to sticking the landing, capturing the chaos, energy and, yes, romance of the Big Apple.
Will Win: “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”
Could Win: “The Lost Boys”
Should Win: “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)” -
Best Play
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“Liberation,” an exploration of second-wave feminism that is formally daring and deeply moving should add a Tony to writer Bess Wohl’s trophy case. It’s possible that “Giant,” which won last year’s Olivier Award for best play, will repeat the feat here. But in a just world, “The Balusters,” a ferociously funny look at a neighborhood association riven by petty fights and clashing egos, would pull off a come-from-behind victory. It’s a satire about dysfunctional politics that feels all too topical.
Will Win: “Liberation”
Could Win: “Giant”
Should Win: “The Balusters” -
Revival of a Musical
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“Ragtime” with its sprawling look at America at the dawn of a new century, has the epic scale and scope Tony voters like to reward. But “Cats: The Jellicle Ball” is a revelation. Andrew Lloyd Webber’s megamusical about anthropomorphic kitties was hugely popular because of the spectacle, not the ludicrous plot. By restaging the show during the drag balls of the 1980s, “Cats” has morphed into a glorious celebration of downtown culture and queer identity.
Will Win: “Ragtime”
Could Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
Should Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball” -
Revival of a Play
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This “Death of a Salesman” reimagines an overly familiar story so that it becomes less a revival than a rediscovery. Director Joe Mantello’s decision to lean into the surreality to dramatize the central character’s fractured mind makes Arthur Miller’s 77-year-old tragedy seem utterly modern. No other revival took a risk like “Salesman,” and Tony voters will — and should — reward its high-wire act.
Will Win: “Death of a Salesman”
Could Win: “Oedipus”
Should Win: “Death of a Salesman” -
Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
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As Coalhouse Walker Jr., a talented piano player whose confidence in the American dream is destroyed, Joshua Henry is a powerhouse. “Ragtime” wouldn’t have had its shattering impact were it not for his wrenching portrayal of a man steamrolled by a ruthless, racist system. It’s not just the best performance in his category; Henry’s may be the greatest one on Broadway this season. He’s a lock.
Will Win: Joshua Henry
Could Win: Nicholas Christopher
Should Win: Joshua Henry -
Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
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In John Lithgow’s hands, Roald Dahl is a brilliant and witty, often sympathetic, ultimately horrifying monster. Each one of Dahl’s glorious turns of phrase is designed to exact maximum carnage; every turned eyebrow betrays his bullying intellect. But even as we laugh with Dahl — and we do — we see the unapologetic antisemite lurking beneath. It’s a career-best performance that Tony voters will likely honor. Nathan Lane as Willy Loman is just as effective at showing his character’s belief that his bad luck can turn on a dime. It’s a shame they can’t share the prize, but given that Lithgow has two Tonys to Lane’s three, it’s time to even the score.
Will Win: John Lithgow
Could Win: Nathan Lane
Should Win: John Lithgow -
Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
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If “Ragtime” has the sweep-the-board Tonys ceremony that many prognosticators expect, then Caissie Levy, who plays Mother, will be delivering an acceptance speech. But don’t be shocked if Christiani Pitts hears her name called out instead. Still, our pick is Marla Mindelle for her gloriously demented turn as Celine Dion in “Titanique.
Will Win: Caissie Levy
Could Win: Christiani Pitts
Should Win: Marla Mindelle -
Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
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This prize has been Lesley Manville’s to lose since “Oedipus” opened last fall. The British stage legend made a stunning Broadway debut playing a political spouse gets some pretty upsetting news about her husband. There’s a wrenching monologue that Manville delivers that levelled audiences with its intensity. Give this woman her Tony!
Will Win: Lesley Manville
Could Win: Susannah Flood
Should Win: Lesley Manville -
Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
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Legendary performer André De Shields, nominated for “Cats: The Jellicle Ball,” is a potential victor. After winning for “Hadestown” at 73, a second Tony at 80 would further cement his late-career renaissance. De Shields’ closest competitors are Ben Levi Ross, fresh off his Drama Desk win for “Ragtime,” and 26-year-old breakout Ali Louis Bourzgui from “The Lost Boys,” marking his second originated role on Broadway following 2024’s “The Who’s Tommy,” where he played the titular role.
Will Win: André De Shields
Could Win: Ben Levi Ross
Should Win: Ali Louis Bourzgui -
Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
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Of all the acting races, this is the hardest to read, with four viable contenders in the mix. They include theater enthusiasts’ heavily favored Alden Ehrenreich for “Becky Shaw,” the formidable Christopher Abbott for “Death of a Salesman,” and a true dark-horse spoiler in Richard Thomas for “The Balusters,” whose potential victory could serve as a way to honor the production as a whole. Burstein already broke a record with his ninth Tony nod, for “Marjorie Prime,” giving him the all-time mark for most Tony nominations by a male performer (surpassing Jason Robards). In the end, we think Thomas squeaks by.
Will Win: Richard Thomas
Could Win: Danny Burstein
Should Win: Alden Ehrenreich -
Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
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This seems to be the one category you can take to the bank. It’s hard to fathom that the third time won’t be the charm for Shoshana Bean for her work in “The Lost Boys,” although it could be argued that Nichelle Lewis could get wrapped up in a full-on sweep of “Ragtime.”
Will Win: Shoshana Bean
Could Win: Nichelle Lewis
Should Win: Shoshana Bean -
Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
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June Squibb also broke a record of her own on nomination morning. At 96, she is the oldest acting nominee in Tony history, surpassing Lois Smith, who was 89 when nominated for “The Inheritance” in 2020. After turning 90, she went on to win that season, becoming the oldest winner ever. Coincidentally, Smith originated the title role of “Marjorie Prime” off-Broadway in 2015 before reprising it in the 2017 film. Smith. Can Squibb smash one more record of Smith’s? Might be difficult considering the reviews and acclaim of her fellow nominee Laurie Metcalf from “Death of a Salesman,” who is likely to be part of a big night for the Scott Rudin-produced revival.
Will Win: Laurie Metcalf
Could Win: June Squibb
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf -
Direction of a Musical
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Will Win: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch
Could Win: Michael Arden
Should Win: Lear deBesseonet -
Direction of a Play
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Will Win: Joe Mantello
Could Win: Whitney White
Should Win: Robert Icke -
Book of a Musical
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Will Win: “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”
Could Win: “Schmigadoon!”
Should Win: “Titaníque” -
Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics)
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Will Win: “Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)”
Could Win: “The Lost Boys”
Should Win: “Death of a Salesman” -
Choreography
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Will Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
Could Win: “The Rocky Horror Show”
Should Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball” -
Orchestrations
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Will Win: “The Lost Boys”
Could Win: “Schmigadoon!”
Should Win: “Schmigadoon!” -
Costume Design of a Musical
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Will Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
Could Win: “Ragtime”
Should Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball” -
Costume Design of a Play
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Will Win: “Fallen Angels”
Could Win: “August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone”
Should Win: “Fallen Angels” -
Sound Design of a Musical
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Will Win: “The Lost Boys”
Could Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
Should Win: “The Lost Boys” -
Sound Design of a Play
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Will Win: “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman”
Could Win: “The Fear of 13”
Should Win: “Bug” -
Scenic Design of a Musical
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Will Win: “The Lost Boys”
Could Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”
Should Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball” -
Scenic Design of a Play
Image Credit: Evan Zimmerman Will Win: “Dog Day Afternoon”
Could Win: “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman”
Should Win: “Oedipus” -
Lighting Design of a Musical
Image Credit: Matthew Murphy Will Win: “The Lost Boys”
Could Win: “Chess”
Should Win: “Cats: The Jellicle Ball”(function(){function e(){window.addEventListener(`message`,function(e){if(e.data[`datawrapper-height`]!==void 0){var t=document.querySelectorAll(`iframe`);for(var n in e.data[`datawrapper-height`])for(var r=0,i;i=t[r];r++)if(i.contentWindow===e.source){var a=e.data[`datawrapper-height`][n]+`px`;i.style.height=a}}})}e()})();
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Lighting Design of a Play
Image Credit: Emilio Madrid Will Win: “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman”
Could Win: “Bug”
Should Win: “The Fear of 13”
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Clayton Davis
Almontather Rassoul
