election 2024: In a ‘no-option’ election, despite absence of a Modi wave, he remains the central factor: Neerja Chowdhury

What is the outlook in the penultimate stage of the Lok Sabha elections? We have witnessed close to about 63.2% voter turnout. How would you look at the overall voter turnout that we have witnessed so far because phase 6 has recorded the lowest?
Neerja Chowdhury: The voter turnout has been revised by the Election Commission of India and has created quite a controversy with the Opposition regarding why it took so long to revise the numbers. But anyway, the broad point is that the voter turnout is lower than 2019. Now it can be 2-3% lower, 1-2% lower. I suppose the heat, the length of the election, and so on. There could be very many reasons for that. Overconfidence on the part of the BJP supporters that since they are getting over 400, what is the need to go out and vote? So, there can be different factors.

Of course, there are also people who are dissatisfied with the present regime and would like it to be reined in, but do not want to vote for the other side as they do not feel that it is a credible national alternative. So, there are many factors for this drop in the voter turnout. But I would say an election really should not go on for so long. At the peak of summer, for almost two months, it should be somewhere the Election Commission should give thought to how to hold an election, even though it is a vast country, in a shorter period of time.

What are the trends so far looking like? You think the BJP can do better than the last tally of 303?
Neerja Chowdhury: Well, the BJP’s top leadership is certainly making a pitch for that, that they are going to cross, that they have already crossed before the seventh phase. And the Home Minister has even said that we crossed the 300 to 310 mark after the fifth phase. So, they are showing super confidence that they are already home and dry. Certainly, it goes without saying that the BJP will form the government. Whatever be the number, BJP is going to be the single largest party and is likely to be invited by the Election Commission of India to form the government. INDIA is not fighting under one symbol, even if, hypothetically speaking, it does very well.

So that being the case, now it is a question of whether it is going to be 300 paar, 400 paar, or it is going to be just over a majority or as the opposition would like to believe, it may be below majority, those are the kind of reports that are coming. I think now only with the seventh phase left, 90% of the election is over and in terms of trends, though there was no visible Modi wave, but Modi remains a compelling central factor in this election.

While the voices of dissatisfaction have also increased, whether it is with unemployment, rising prices, Agniveers programme, exam leaks, a whole host of issues. But it did not look like an anger election, what is called dissatisfaction versus anger and that makes a lot of difference. By and large, there may be dissatisfaction but it is not that people are wanting a change because there is no alternative. Many people have described it as a no-option election.Given that you are talking about Prime Minister Narendra Modi being at the centre of it all, do you think that the expectations that are riding high with respect to strong economic reforms, especially tougher ones, could actually come about?
Neerja Chowdhury: Well, he certainly said that there are dramatic things in store in the first 100 days of his government if he comes back to power. Now, certainly, yes, economic reforms are one thing. Battling corruption is another thing they have talked about. They will have to, this time, go not for the low-hanging fruits but for the high-hanging fruits. For instance, Varanasi has been cleaned up. Ghats look very different. But what about cleaning the Ganga, which remains the sameAlso, with the dissatisfaction at the end of 10 years, though it is remarkable that the prime minister continues to be popular at the end of a whole decade of governance, normally anti-incumbency sets in and that is an interesting phenomenon. But given the dissatisfaction that has also been expressed, the expectations of people are going to be much higher if he comes back to power.

How are you looking at, overall, the performance in some of the swing states like UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, and what that could potentially spell out?
Neerja Chowdhury: Well, there are states where the BJP, it is said, will lose some seats, at least those are the indications coming. Haryana is one of them. There is a contest in almost more than half the seats. Rajasthan, they think will lose some. It was 10 out of 10 in Haryana last time, 25 out of 25 last time in Rajasthan. In Karnataka, 25 out of 28. With the Congress government in power there, they will lose some seats there. It remains to be seen.

UP is a big question mark. The BJP hopes to up its tally. The opposition feels they will lose some seats, but they will make up in eastern India. I think they are likely to make up in West Bengal, Orissa, Telangana, Andhra, mopping up maybe two, three, four seats in each of these states. So, it remains to be seen what happens in the final round. Indian elections are always very unexpected in many ways. The Indian voter does throw up surprises. So, let us see who gains from that. But certainly, the BJP is exuding confidence that they are home and dry already.