Nifty market analysis: Tech indicators point to continued market weakness amid India-Pakistan conflict

Most technical indicators point to continued market weakness amid the India-Pakistan conflict. Analysts say sentiment is unlikely to improve unless both nations adhere to proposed cessation hostilities, and the Nifty reclaims 24,500. Immediate support is seen at 23,800, with a further cushion at 23,500. Analysts recommend relatively safer bets in quality stocks such as ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, Home First Finance, SBI, HUL, BEL, SRF, Nykaa, Samvardhana Motherson, and Titan.

MEHUL KOTHARI

AVP – TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ANAND RATHI SHARES & STOCK BROKERS

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty’s recent correction was broadly anticipated. While the fall itself wasn’t a surprise, the geopolitical trigger adds a layer of concern. Technically, the index has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on weekly chart, suggesting more downside unless it reclaims 24,500. In the short term, 23,800 acts as immediate support, followed by 23,500, which aligns with the 200-EMA. If these levels are breached, the bearish momentum may intensify. On the flip side, if Nifty moves above 24,500 and Bank Nifty reclaims 55,000, the broader trend could stabilise, offering a short-term relief rally. Until then, volatility may persist.

What could investors do?

With both Nifty and Bank Nifty testing critical support, traders should remain cautious. Long positions are only advisable above 24,500 in Nifty and 55,000 in Bank Nifty, with protective puts. Short trades may be considered on a break below 23,800, targeting 23,500 and lower, while Bank Nifty shorts may eye 52,600 if 53,500 breaks. Investors can consider staggered accumulation near Nifty at 23,500 and Bank Nifty at 51,800–52,600, but should increase exposure only on clear strength above key resistances.

SACCHITANAND UTTEKAR
VP-TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES, TRADEBULLS SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty appears to be entering a phase of time and price correction, with the index now struggling to decisively surpass the key resistance level of 24,545. This week marks the first close below recent weekly swing low of 24,008, signalling potential short-term weakness, although the index still managed to hold above its 5-week EMA support at 23,860. Trend strength indicators such as ADX falling below 18 and RSI heading toward the neutral 50 mark further support the likelihood of an ongoing corrective phase.

What could investors do?
For momentum traders, it is advisable to avoid chasing breakouts and instead wait for a confirmed close above 24,545. Should the ongoing correction deepens, investors can view it as a staggered accumulation opportunity. Key support levels to watch include the 20-week EMA near 23,540 and the 22,900 zone, which represents a critical weekly support. These levels are likely to uphold the broader bullish structure. Top picks are ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, Home First Finance, SBI, HUL, BEL, SRF, Nykaa, Samvardhana Motherson, and Titan

DHARMESH SHAH
HEAD OF TECHNICAL, ICICI SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty snapped a three-week winning streak tracking escalated geopolitical tension and settled the volatile week at 24,008, down 1.4%. The heightened geopolitical tension fuelled the volatility in the market. We expect Nifty to consolidate in the broader range of 24,500- 23,200, wherein stock-specific action would prevail amid the ongoing earnings season. Meanwhile, the de-escalation of armed conflict would be the key monitorable as it would open the door for the next leg of up-move.

What should investors do?
We advise not to panic but rather build quality portfolios from a medium-term perspective, as strong support is placed at 23,200. Further, persistent FPI inflow, a bilateral Trade Agreement between India and the US would provide cushion to the market. We remain constructive on BFSI, IT, defence and textile. Hence, dips should be used as a buying opportunity in quality stocks with strong earnings.