Xbox is so hard to predict that looking ahead to another year feels like an impossible task. I’m not sure anyone expected Microsoft to make major layoffs and shut down entire studios, not least its ‘AAAA’ Perfect Dark one, but here we are at the end of 2025, wondering what’s going on.
Microsoft has already started to talk about hardware, but with prices of consoles and the Xbox Game Pass subscription service climbing, can it really convince players it’s still a player, and that they should invest in its ecosystem?
Despite it feeling near-impossible, here’s our look ahead to 2026 and what’s to come for Xbox.
Are exclusives A Thing anymore?
It feels a lot like Microsoft is ahead of the curve with exclusives in some ways. Games cost a fortune to make, so why recoup that cost from just one segment of the market? With Sony’s Helldivers 2 likely to be a first salvo of PlayStation games on Xbox, we might look back at it as the decision that saved the brand. We might also look at it as the choice that doomed it, with Xbox hardware harder to recommend than ever – especially at its current price point.
The next title seemingly hopping the fence from Team Green to Team Blue is Starfield, with various suggestions that Bethesda and Microsoft are planning a major overhaul of the game in conjunction with its release on PlayStation. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen, but it certainly feels likely as a way to generate more income for a game that was in development for a long, long time.
On the topic of jumping ship, this year will see Halo come to PlayStation — something that would’ve been absolute sacrilege not too long ago. Halo: Campaign Evolved only includes the single-player portion of the original, but we’d be very surprised if the Master Chief Collection doesn’t follow in crossing the border in time to give PlayStation players a chance to catch up.
Elsewhere, Forza Horizon 6 is slated for this year and will take the series to Japan after years of fan requests. We’ve not seen a lot of it yet, with just a tone piece trailer and no gameplay so far, but given how well-received the series has been since its inception, we’re expecting good things.
Another title we’re expecting a lot from is Playground Games’ Fable reboot. The role-playing game (RPG) has been delayed multiple times, and still looks to feature the very British humor of the Lionhead originals, but we’re yet to see a gameplay blowout as we’ve seen from Clockwork Revolution (which, to its credit, looks great).
Gears of War: E-Day will bring back Marcus Fenix for a prequel story, and Diablo IV is getting its second expansion, Lord of Hatred, but perhaps what we’re most curious about is Call of Duty. The long-running first-person series will still get annual releases, but not in the same sub-franchise each time, so Black Ops looks to be on hiatus for a while. In its place, expect Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 if the leaks are correct.
Sticking with Activision Blizzard, consider 2026 a big year for Microsoft’s shiniest new acquisition. Alongside Call of Duty and the Diablo expansion, more eyes will be on World of Warcraft with its Midnight expansion, and while Overwatch 2 has been winning players back, the return of BlizzCon is a chance to get all eyes on the legendary publisher.
On the third-party front, Xbox is still competing, but Sony has locked down the marketing rights for GTA 6. That could be a blow when it comes to console sales for lapsed gamers and more casual players who see the PS5 logo at the end of a TV ad and get right to ordering one.
Pragmata, Resident Evil Requiem, and 007 First Light are all big launches, but perhaps Microsoft’s biggest hurdle involves Xbox Game Pass and third-party releases. When the company hiked its prices, it promised more day-and-date launches from first- and third-party developers. 2025 saw big critical hits like Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 and Hollow Knight: Silksong, but can it keep that up across a whole year to the tune of 75+ yearly games? We’ll soon find out.
You need an Xbox, honest!
Microsoft has already begun talking up the next console generation, only it doesn’t sound like it’ll really be much of a console at all. With suggestions suggesting it’ll feature multiple storefronts, we could (in theory) get a more PC-like console that has access to PC titles across multiple launches and even Sony’s PC output.
While we don’t expect Microsoft to start its new generation in 2026, it’s clear it considers this current one over. The cheapest, ‘entry-level’ Xbox Series S will now cost you around the same amount as the base PS5, despite being less powerful and having fewer exclusives. Microsoft, despite being on the bleeding edge last generation with the Xbox One X, didn’t look to rival the PS5 Pro, either.
After two price jumps within months for its hardware, Microsoft needs to do more next generation (or for the remainder of this one) to convince potential customers they need an Xbox or Windows PC. It’s already promised more gamer-centric improvements to its desktop operating system in the coming months, but given it’s still down an AI rabbit hole, which feels more and more misguided every week, that could take some time. It also needs to cool it with the price increases for a while.
As for the hardware we could see in 2026, we wouldn’t bet against an Elite Controller refresh. Rumors have swirled about a haptic pad that takes at least some cues from the DualSense, but that one launched in 2019 before the ‘Core’ version arrived in 2022. Expect fresh colorways for the standard pad, too.
Haven’t we been here before?
Microsoft was expected to throw in the towel multiple generations before, notably after the original Xbox and the disastrous Xbox One launch in 2013. This time it feels different, not least because of the money spent to acquire studios and publishers, as well as demands for a 30% profit margin. Will the next generation be Xbox’s last in any way, particularly hardware? That remains to be seen, but you wouldn’t want to bet either way.
If the company does go third-party, it’ll likely do so by pushing Xbox Game Pass wherever it can, but the service faces an uphill struggle to prove it’s worthy of the major price hike this year – and I don’t think Ubisoft Classics or Fortnite Crew is the answer.
Will publishers and developers lean away from Xbox and into Sony and Nintendo’s platforms if the install base gets too small? It’s a worrying thought considering that upstart spirit that kicked off Microsoft’s gaming efforts in the first place, but make no mistake – 2026 is crucial for the Xbox brand.
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