Crude shock for D-Street on fresh US-Iran tensions

Mumbai: Indian equity indices plunged Thursday, fuelled by a fresh US-Iran flare-up that sent Brent crude racing past $71 a barrel, exposing the import-dependent economy’s vulnerability to rising oil prices amid a steady rupee retreat against the US dollar over the past 12 months.

The NSE’s Nifty fell 365 points, or 1.4% to close at 25,454.35. The BSE’s Sensex declined 1,236.11 points, or 1.5%, to end at 82,498.14. Both the indices had opened marginally higher after ending firm for the past three trading sessions. “Market participants do not expect the tensions between the US and Iran to ease soon,” said Pankaj Pandey, head of fundamental research, ICICI Direct. “In the near term, the Nifty could move toward the 25,200 level,” he said.

On the NSE, all sectoral indices had declined at close, while the 30-stock Sensex saw all stocks end lower on Thursday.

Fear Gauge Climbs to 13.5
The declines led to a market cap erosion of Rs 6.4 lakh crore.

The Volatility Index or VIX – the stock market’s fear gauge – spiked over 10% to 13.5, indicating that traders see continued risks in the near term.

Brent Oil April Futures have soared nearly $4 a barrel in the past two days to $71.2 on Thursday evening as the shadow of a US military strike on Iran over the stalled nuclear talks loomed over the oil market. A potential escalation of risks could choke the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz – a key route for the world’s energy exports from the region. According to reports, Iran has shut the Strait briefly for military drills.

Pandey said that crude prices may stay elevated in the coming weeks, which could affect multiple sectors of the Indian market, given that India is an oil-importing country, and trading may remain volatile.

India imports about four fifths of its oil needs, and crude oil shipments dominate its import bills. The Indian rupee, already under the cosh due to the lingering tariffs dispute, could extend its run of losses and stoke risks of imported inflation should the price of oil in the global markets remain firm.

Gold and silver prices were up 0.2% and 1.2%on Thursday evening.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan advanced 0.6%, and South Korea gained 3.1%. Financial markets remained shut in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan for the Lunar New Year holiday. The pan-Europe index Stoxx 600 was down 0.6% at the time of going to print.

At home, the broader market indices also declined on Thursday, as the Nifty Midcap 150 dropped 1.6% and the Nifty Small-cap 250 fell 1.2%.