Piyush Pandey sees buying opportunity in IT stocks despite AI fears

According to Pandey, current valuations are “extremely comfortable” and most stocks are trading below their five-year averages. “As of now, it looks like most of the stocks are in oversold zone and I would say, the fears from the AI are overblown. And as most of these management we also believe that AI would provide more opportunities in the medium to long term. In fact, there can be some price deflation for certain legacy projects, but that should be more than compensated with increasing volume of IT projects,” he explained in an interview to ET Now.

Pandey emphasized that while the near-term impact might be temporary, IT companies are well-positioned for growth over the next one to two years.

When asked whether the AI disruption is materially different from previous technology shifts such as cloud and internet adoption, Pandey noted, “Even with this disruption, it is more about improvement in productivity. Revenue per employee would increase, headcount addition would be more measured, and some routine tasks can get automated. IT services companies are well entrenched in the entire IT ecosystem where they understand the client’s context and their tech journey over decades.”

He added that this productivity boost could make previously unviable legacy transformation projects feasible. “Near term we might see some disruption, but I remain positive and it looks like even for FY27 performance would be slightly better compared to what we had in FY26,” Pandey said.

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Concerns over AI reducing man-hours and impacting revenue models were addressed as well. “In this AI age I believe it would shift from man-hour base to fixed price or outcome-based projects. There has been significant increase in productivity, especially in coding hours, but for clients who were previously unable to implement IT projects, now it becomes easier and more affordable,” he said.

On margin pressure, Pandey commented, “There would be some margin compression for legacy projects. But as IT companies move towards outcome-based billing, margins would be broadly protected. For global tech companies in the US, if they cannot monetize AI properly, their margins can take a hit. There is more of a bubble case in AI for US tech companies, but for Indian companies, the opportunities are just too huge.”From an investor’s perspective, Pandey recommends patience. “Let the price stabilise, maybe it can take a month or so. But at the current valuations, if somebody has a long-term horizon… and even Q4 would be reasonably good. So, if somebody has a longer term, one can add; otherwise, they can wait for the prices to stabilise.”

He advises a balanced approach between largecap and midcap IT names. “I would say mix of a largecap and Infosys and Coforge one can have 50-50,” he said, highlighting them as top picks.

Pandey also flagged key metrics to monitor in the AI-driven IT cycle: “Companies will start reporting on deal TCV, especially AI-led deal TCV, and one needs to track the pace at which AI-led deal TCV grows. Even Infosys reported around 5.5% revenue from AI-led services and TCS had a similar number at around 5.8%, that $1.8 billion. AI-led revenue, AI-led deal TCV, and how the mix is changing quarter to quarter needs to be tracked. Plus, headcount addition is still important to keep their employee pyramid intact.”

With measured optimism, Pandey believes the Indian IT sector is poised to navigate AI disruption while delivering value to long-term investors.