Strategic oil bets may outperform in current geopolitical crisis: Mark Matthews

The latest surge in crude oil prices, with Brent crude once again climbing above the $100 mark, is sending shockwaves across global financial markets. As investors recalibrate strategies, the question on everyone’s mind is: how long will it take for markets to digest this oil shock?

Mark Matthews, a seasoned market strategist from Julius Baer notes, “How soon before markets begin to digest it? They are digesting it now. We can see the Asian markets. The Japanese stock market, for example, was up as much as 17% in late February; now it is flat on the year. So, we are pricing in this high oil price right now.”

When asked about the potential impact on India, Matthews said, “Last year was a very good year for markets like Japan, China, and the US, but India did not do much. So, there should not be as much downside for India. Of course, you could make the case that India uses more oil than some of those other economies or has to import more, but the Indian economy, like most economies in the world, has become more efficient in its oil usage. The pain point which used to be $80 a barrel is now probably around 100. The good news is that India is now able to buy Russian oil again, which takes some pressure off. But really, for India and the rest of the world, it all depends on how long this war lasts.”

Foreign investor sentiment toward India remains cautious but opportunistic. Matthews explains, “There was a breakout in emerging markets versus the US in February of a very long downward trend channel, it had been in place for more than maybe 15 years. But it was a false breakout because last week emerging markets went down more than the US. In general, they are more vulnerable to high oil prices. Most of the oil that goes through the Strait of Hormuz comes out here to Asia. So intuitively, if the war lasts, emerging markets, because they are primarily Asian, should underperform.”

Looking ahead to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, Matthews anticipates measured action. “It is premature for the Fed to react to this war in Iran, but the non-farm payroll reading for February was a loss. That would suggest they would be in favor of cutting interest rates. The market is looking for two rate cuts this year. One reason is because the Federal Reserve does not like to surprise the market. It likes the market to price in broadly what it is thinking. I do not expect one of those to necessarily be next week, but by the end of this year, there should be two.”

Regarding hedging strategies for India, Matthews points to the oil sector rather than precious metals alone. “Gold and silver have done very well, but they are vulnerable because in risk-off events of this size, people like to take profit. With oil over $100 and war not ending soon, there is a case for owning the oil sector, not just in India but globally. Longer term, even when this war ends, if Iran is not stable, the Strait of Hormuz will not be stable either, and that is responsible for about 20% of the world’s oil trade.”

He also highlighted potential central bank responses, saying, “Iran’s game plan is quite obvious. They want to get oil prices as high as possible to put pressure on the US. With high oil prices, we will see inflation, because oil feeds into many aspects of the consumer and producer price indices. Supply chain disruptions, like issues in the Suez Canal, are also inflationary. When you have inflation, it is hard to cut interest rates, and central banks might even have to raise them depending on how long the war lasts.”Finally, Matthews weighed in on China’s position in the current geopolitical landscape. “China has been very prudent in accumulating a large oil reserve—over 250 days’ worth. That is a good thing. But China is the largest buyer of Middle Eastern oil. Longer term, this could incentivize them to diversify, with Russia being an obvious option. Very few are winning in this scenario, but Russia, Norway, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela are among those benefiting.”

As global markets grapple with high oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and inflationary pressures, investors are navigating an uncertain landscape. While India’s underperformance relative to other emerging markets might cushion its downside, exposure to energy-related sectors could offer a strategic hedge in these turbulent times.