MCX crude oil futures rocket 62% in just 6 sessions! Should investors buy liquid gold?

For India, which relies heavily on crude imports, the spike poses a serious challenge if the conflict in West Asia continues and oil prices stay elevated. VK Vijayakumar of Geojit said markets will increasingly start pricing in the broader economic impact of the surge in crude. He also cautioned that inflationary pressures are likely to rise regardless of whether the higher fuel costs are passed on to consumers.

Vijayakumar added that the biggest uncertainty at the moment is the duration of the conflict. This lack of clarity could also influence foreign investor behaviour. He noted that foreign institutional investors have once again turned aggressive sellers in Indian markets after a brief period of buying in February.Meanwhile, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that global oil prices could surge as high as $150 per barrel if the conflict in the Middle East intensifies and disrupts energy supplies from the Gulf region.Should you buy oil on MCX?

According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, higher timeframes continue to indicate strong bullish momentum, with prices holding firmly above key moving averages and important support levels. He said a decisive move above Rs 9,300 could push prices further towards Rs 9,500 to Rs 9,650. Immediate support is placed in the Rs 8,800 to Rs 8,500 range, while a sustained fall below Rs 8,400 could weaken the short-term trend and drag prices towards Rs 8,000. Stronger structural support is seen around Rs 7,000 to Rs 7,200. Overall, the outlook remains constructive if the upside breakout continues.

Aamir Makda, Commodity and Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, said U.S. WTI crude oil opened with a gap up at $98 and is currently trading around $115, reflecting a rise of nearly 26%. He noted that this marks the biggest jump in crude prices since 2020, largely driven by disruptions in the Middle East. Iran’s move to block the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend has heightened concerns around regional oil supply. He added that the sharp rise in the U.S. dollar, which is now trading above the 99 level, has also influenced crude price movements. Meanwhile, countries such as Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar have reported a decline in overall oil production.

Key support to be considered at Rs 9,000-Rs 8,127 respectively. On the other hand, immediate resistance would be at Rs 10,500 and breakout of this level will accelerate upside momentum in Crude oil price towards 11,300 in upcoming sessions.”

The ongoing war, which began on February 28, could leave consumers and businesses worldwide dealing with elevated fuel costs for several weeks or even months. Even if the conflict ends soon, suppliers may continue to face challenges such as damaged infrastructure, logistical disruptions and heightened risks to shipping in the region.

Domestic brokerage JM Financial said that every $1 increase in crude prices raises India’s annual import bill by roughly $2 billion. Prolonged tensions could elevate logistics and marine insurance costs, disrupt Gulf shipping routes and widen pressure on the trade balance. The INR faces a near-term depreciation bias, with potential RBI intervention via foreign exchange reserves. The transmission mechanism is evident: higher crude prices increase inflation risks; elevated inflation pushes bond yields higher; and rising yields compress equity valuation multiples.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)