The S & P 500 ‘s strong first 100 trading days of 2024 is a good omen for the rest of the year, according to Bank of America technical research strategist Stephen Suttmeier. As of May 23, the 100th trading day of 2024, the S & P 500 had rallied more than 10% for the year. According to Suttmeier, this was the best first 100 days for the broad market index during an election year since 1928 — which typically trend weaker, he said in a report. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 year to date Historically, when the S & P 500 rises 10% or more in the first 100 days of any year, the index is higher the rest of the year 76% of the time, the strategist said. In this case, the average return comes in at 7.1%, with a higher median return of 9.3%. “Success breeds success,” Suttmeier wrote in a Friday note. The strategist added that there’s even more reason for investors to get bullish — a positive first 100 days in an election year results in a 93% likelihood the S & P 500 rises the rest of the year. Returns average 10.1% in this scenario, or an 8.9% median return. “The SPX tends to have a summer rally, and Presidential election years can see big summer rallies,” Suttmeier said. “June-August is the second strongest 3-month period of the year for all years going back to 1928 with the SPX up 65% of the time on an average return of 3.2%.” But in presidential election years, the S & P 500 advances 75% of the time in the June through August period, scoring an average gain of 7.3%. If 2024, followed that pattern, the S & P 500 would stand at 5650 shortly before Labor Day, based on the May 23 close, Bank of America said. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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