Global Markets: Asian stocks dip as traders await ceasefire news

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4%, snapping a three-day rally. The cautious end to the week followed a 10-day rally in global equities that pushed markets to a record high, as traders bet easing tensions will lower oil prices and support economic growth. Wall Street gauges also closed at an all-time high for a second consecutive day.

Global crude benchmark Brent slipped 1.3% to $98.14 a barrel after President Donald Trump expressed optimism about securing a permanent ceasefire with Iran ahead of the expiry of the current truce next week. Gold edged higher, while Treasuries were little changed

Investors are awaiting progress in talks that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing crude flows and relieving pressure on economies after oil prices surged following the conflict’s onset in late February. While oil has pared its war-driven premium and stocks have climbed to record highs, economists are warning that markets may be underestimating the war’s economic toll.

“Markets head into the final session of the week sitting at key technical and psychological levels, with conviction still lacking as traders wait for clearer signals out of the Middle East,” Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, wrote in a note.

Live Events

Trump claimed, without evidence, that Iran had agreed to terms it has long resisted, including giving up ambitions for a nuclear weapon and turning over nuclear material. The deal would also include “free oil” and an opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the President said. Tehran hasn’t confirmed it’s made those concessions.

The prospects for a deal with Iran are “looking very good.” Trump said.Earlier, Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. His announcement on Thursday made no mention of Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed in a video message that he’d agreed to the truce.

Traders are also focused on the dollar, which has weakened after rallying on haven demand since the war began in late February. Deutsche Bank AG and Wells Fargo & Co. are among banks declaring the greenback’s war-driven haven rally is likely over as the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran prompts investors to seek riskier assets.

Elsewhere, Netflix Inc. slid in after-hours trading after issuing a second-quarter forecast that missed analysts’ expectations. US equity-index futures were mixed with contracts for the S&P 500 Index edging up 0.1%, while contracts for the Nasdaq 100 was flat.

US stocks were buoyed by cooler-than-expected US producer and import prices this week, and got another lift after initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 came in below economist forecasts.

“This is yet another sign of headline fatigue as it relates to the war in the Gulf region,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO. “The prevailing consolidation pattern is also suggestive that the influence of fresh geopolitical headlines is waning.”