Goldman Sachs’ Scott Rubner is now on correction watch because everyone, including himself, is too bullish on stocks, he said. “This is the last bullish U.S. Equity email that I will be sending out for now, as the last standing bears have capitulated and everyone is in the pool,” Rubner wrote on Monday. “I am so bullish after 34 new [all-time highs], that I am actually turning tactically bearish. The pain trade has shifted from the upside to the downside.” The shift in tone comes after Marko Kolanovic, one of Wall Street’s last remaining bearish strategists, departed JPMorgan. Kolanovic came to prominence after forecasting a recovery during the coronavirus pandemic, but had maintained a bleak outlook on equities over the past two years even as the S & P 500 surged to new highs. But the current exuberance in markets is giving Rubner pause, especially as investors head into what is a traditionally weak period for stocks, seasonally, ahead of what he anticipates will be a choppy autumn given risks surrounding the U.S. presidential election. In fact, Rubner anticipates the S & P 500 could top out around mid-July. While the first 15 days of July have historically proven to be the best two-week trading period for the S & P 500, he said, the midway point of the month typically marks a turning point for equities. “Since 1928, July 17th has marked the local top for the month heading into a materially lower August,” Rubner wrote. “I am modelling a late summer equity market correction.”
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