Maruti Suzuki shares jump 4% after Q4 results. What Jefferies, Goldman Sachs and HSBC recommend now

Shares of Maruti Suzuki India Limited (MSIL), India’s largest passenger carmaker, rallied over 4% to their day’s high of Rs 13,441 on the BSE on Wednesday after it reported a 7% year-on-year (YoY) decline in standalone profit for the March quarter at Rs 3,591 crore, compared with Rs 3,857 crore in the same period last year.

Revenue from operations for Q4FY26 rose 28% to Rs 52,449 crore, up from Rs 40,910 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. The company’s profit after tax came in below Street estimates of Rs 4,279 crore, while revenue exceeded analyst expectations of Rs 51,486 crore.

Maruti Suzuki posted its highest-ever quarterly sales at 6,76,209 units, marking an 11.8% increase from Q4 FY2024-25. Domestic sales stood at 538,994 units, while exports reached a record 137,215 units. For the full financial year FY2025-26, MSIL reported its highest-ever net profit of Rs 14,445 crore, compared with Rs 14,298 crore in the previous year.

Maruti Suzuki shares: Should you buy?
Jefferies has maintained its Hold rating on Maruti Suzuki with a target price of Rs 13,800 (7% upside). However, the brokerage flagged that Maruti Suzuki’s market share has slipped to a 13-year low amid a shift in demand toward SUVs, which remains a concern. Following the recent correction, the stock is trading at 24x FY27E PE, compared with its 10-year average of 26x. Jefferies has cut its FY27–28E EPS estimates by 9%.

Goldman Sachs has maintained its Buy rating on Maruti Suzuki with a target price of Rs 15,800. The brokerage said fourth-quarter results were broadly in line with expectations, while domestic volume growth guidance of 10% for FY27 was positive. It also noted that channel inventory remains lean at around 12 days.

It added that demand momentum remains healthy despite geopolitical concerns, while the outlook for exports is balanced despite Middle East logistics issues. Several high-demand models continue to face supply constraints.

Morgan Stanley has maintained its Overweight rating on Maruti Suzuki with a target price of Rs 17,895 and has taken a tactical buy view on the stock. The price implies an upside potential of 39% from current levels. The brokerage expects near-term outperformance over the next 30 days.It believes margins are likely to bottom out in Q1FY27 and recover thereafter. The brokerage said operating leverage, lower discounts, and a richer product mix should help support margins going forward. It also pointed out that valuations are currently below long-term averages. Morgan Stanley has assigned a 70-80% probability to its positive scenario for the stock.

HSBC has maintained its Buy rating on Maruti Suzuki with a target price of Rs 15,000. The brokerage said the company reported an in-line fourth quarter and has so far managed commodity inflation effectively. It added that management’s 10% volume growth guidance for FY27 was encouraging and reflects a resilient demand environment. HSBC also noted that valuations at 20x FY28E EPS appear reasonable, while Maruti Suzuki is expected to be a key beneficiary of the 8th Pay Commission.

Motilal Oswal has maintained its Buy rating on Maruti while cutting its target price to Rs 15,529, implying an upside potential of 20%. The brokerage said the recent GST rate cut has helped revive demand for small cars, making vehicles more affordable for price-sensitive buyers.

The firm noted that Maruti currently has a strong order backlog of 190,000 units. Supported by this pending demand and a healthy pipeline of new launches, management remains confident of delivering 10% domestic volume growth in FY27E, which is expected to support market share recovery. The brokerage believes this improvement in volumes and market share could lead to a re-rating of the stock.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)