Kaynes Tech shares fall another 5% a day after crashing 20%. What brokerages fear the most?

Shares of Kaynes Tech extended losses on Friday, falling another 5% a day after the stock crashed 20% following weaker-than-expected Q4 earnings. The lacklustre results led multiple brokerages to slash their target prices for the stock.

The stock hit an intraday low of Rs 3,184.20 apiece on the NSE on Friday.

The electronics manufacturing company released its quarterly results on Wednesday, reporting a 22% YoY decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 91 crore for Q4 FY26, as against Rs 116 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.

While the bottom line tumbled, Kaynes Tech’s revenue from operations grew 26% YoY to Rs 1,243 crore in Q4 FY26, up from Rs 984 crore a year ago. However, the figure came in about 27% below its internal target of Rs 1,700 crore for the quarter.

JP Morgan on Kaynes Tech

What followed Kaynes Tech’s results were a series of downgrades and target price cuts. JP Morgan downgraded its rating on the stock to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’, and slashed its target price to Rs 4,000 apiece. This implies an upside potential of nearly 20% from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 3,336.50 apiece on NSE. The international brokerage highlighted that the results missed consensus expectations and its own estimates by 18% and 13%, respectively.

“While we still expect strong 40%/45% revenue/earnings CAGR over FY26-28E thanks to the ramp-up of OSAT and PCB businesses, we believe the stock will remain a ‘show me’ stock until the gap between actual numbers and company guidance narrows,” JPMorgan wrote in its note. It cut Kaynes Tech’s core EMS multiple to 33x from 45x, citing both a reduction in revenue growth expectations over the next two years and an increase in net working capital days in its discounted cash flow model.

Nuvama on Kaynes Tech

Nuvama downgraded its rating on Kaynes Tech shares to ‘Hold’ and cut its target price by nearly 36% to Rs 3,550 from Rs 5,500. The latest target price implies an upside potential of more than 6% from the stock’s previous closing price.

At the current market price, Nuvama noted, Kaynes trades at 70x/53x/35x FY27/FY28/FY29 estimated earnings, a valuation that leaves little room for continued execution misses.

Morgan Stanely on Kaynes Tech

Morgan Stanley maintained its Equal-weight rating with a target of Rs 3,663. This implies an upside potential of nearly 10% from the stock’s previous closing price. The international brokerage highlighted that the firm’s Q4 EBITDA margin contracted 145 basis points year-on-year to 15.6%, with the PAT miss driven by operational weakness compounded by higher interest and depreciation costs.

CLSA on Kaynes Tech

CLSA retained Outperform with a Rs 4,200 target but acknowledged that the results were a clear negative. The target price implies an upside potential of 26% from the stock’s previous closing price. “Its balance sheet also deteriorated further, which was a key item heading into its results,” the international brokerage highlighted.

JM Financial on Kaynes Tech

JM Financial maintained its ‘Reduce’ call on the shares of Kaynes Tech, and slashed its target price by more than 12% to Rs 3,820 apiece, implying a downside potential of nearly 9%. The domestic brokerage noted that the company’s profit missed estimates, with the disappointment stemming from a miss on FY26 revenue guidance and hazy FY27-28 visibility, working capital of 179 days and negative OCF.

“In all, we are cutting FY27–29E EPS by 0–5% and target P/E for the EMS business to 40x (from 45x) as we brace for sustained stress on balance sheet,” JM Financial said.

Motilal Oswal on Kaynes Tech

Motilal Oswal maintained its ‘Buy’ call on the shares of Kaynes Tech, but reduced its target price to Rs 4,000 apiece. The domestic brokerage highlighted that the firm reported a lower-than-expected operating performance in Q4 FY26, with EBITDA growth of 15% YoY (as against the estimate of 49%). This was largely led by geopolitical disruptions, deferment of customer orders, delays in government projects, and a decline in revenue from a key EV customer, it highlighted.

“However, management emphasised that underlying industry demand, order book quality, and long-term growth prospects remain intact, with some revenue recognition shifting to future periods. Accordingly, management has guided for FY27 growth at nearly twice the industry growth rate,” Motilal said, adding that management has guided for faster installation in smart meters, shifting to a meter supply-only model and selling only to EPC/SPV partners.

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Kaynes Tech share price history

Kaynes Tech shares have fallen 25% in one week and around 17% in one month. In the longer term, the shares of the company fell 45% in one year but gained 236% in three years.

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