News flash: there probably won’t be an iPhone 18 this year. Well, sort of.
If the latest rumors are true, Apple will release new iPhones in September, as it does every year. But for the first time since 2016 — when the original iPhone SE and iPhone 7 debuted at separate in-person events — it looks like the tech giant will be hosting two distinct launch events for its next smartphone lineup.
The first, in September, will likely be focused on the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Ultra, while the second could take place sometime in spring 2027 — or between March and April, for our Australian readers — and looks set to focus on the regular iPhone 18 and iPhone 18e.
That strategy does get a bit muddled by the potential addition of the iPhone Air 2, which, if it does ever get released, is rumored to drop alongside the iPhone 18 and 18e at next year’s spring event. I personally hope the iPhone Air 2 does see the light of day, though the rumors surrounding its existence aren’t conclusive — and if indeed it is in Apple’s plans, I think it makes more sense to have it launch in September, not spring.
But regardless of what happens with the iPhone Air 2, the fact remains that we’re likely to see September reserved for Apple’s Pro and foldable models moving forward, with everything else coming the following year.
So, yeah — big changes are a-comin’.
What happened to ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’?
As for why Apple could be about to rip up its tried-and-tested release playbook — which, it’s worth noting, has yielded market-leading phone sales for the best part of a decade — we don’t have any official answers. But we can, of course, speculate as to the reasons for the change.
Firstly, almost every other smartphone manufacturer already staggers its smartphone launches. Samsung, for instance, has long hosted separate launch events for its Galaxy S and Z series phones, just as Google regularly launches its A-series Pixel phones around six months after its mainline models.
Having two separate iPhone launch events means Apple can keep momentum for its iPhones going throughout the year, rather than enjoying one big splash of publicity every September. It can also more effectively steal attention away from Android-focused events like MWC in March and those annual releases from Samsung and Xiaomi, which typically happen in the same spring period (I single out those two brands because they’re Apple’s two biggest competitors).
What’s more, a biannual iPhone launch strategy means Apple can target two different types of consumers more effectively, which it clearly hopes to do if it plans to bundle its premium models into one event, and its more affordable models into another.
Secondly, the base iPhone 17 is selling very, very well. According to Counterpoint, Apple’s latest base model is the best-selling phone of 2026 so far, and with rumors swirling that Apple could downgrade the iPhone 18 to cut costs, it makes sense to extend the shelf life of the iPhone 17 as much as possible.
That cost-cutting strategy is also key to understanding why Apple could be about to mix up its release schedule.
Prolific iPhone leaker Fixed Focus Digital suggests Apple will bring “certain manufacturing downgrades” to the iPhone 18 to better align it with the iPhone 18e from a supply chain level. In other words, the iPhone 18 could be a worse phone than the iPhone 17 — or at least a largely similar one, which isn’t something you’d expect from a successor — but only because Apple might deliberately reposition its base model as a stablemate of the e line rather than the Pro line.
Why? Because the iPhone 17’s $799 / £799 / AU$1,399 price is clearly the sweet spot for consumers. If manufacturing costs are going up, it tracks that the iPhone 18 could cost more if Apple decides to make a phone that’s objectively better than the iPhone 17. But if the iPhone 18’s price tag creeps up, Apple risks alienating its mid-range customers and encroaching on the premium appeal of its Pro line. Differentiation is key, and hosting two separate iPhone launch events would help Apple maintain that.
It’s Ternus time
It also makes sense that all of this could kick off under the tenure of new CEO John Ternus, who will succeed Tim Cook as the head of Apple from September.
Apple has, in all likelihood, been planning an iPhone strategy shake-up for some time now, but it’s fitting that Ternus should be the one to introduce both a new iPhone category in the foldable iPhone Ultra and a new type of base model in the iPhone 18.
Will this new strategy pay off? It’s true that, in being the world’s biggest smartphone manufacturer, Apple has a lot to lose by messing with its golden goose product. But the MacBook Neo showed that Ternus and co. value budget-focused buyers as much as Apple’s traditional target market, so to me, it makes sense that the iPhone should receive the same segmented treatment.
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axel.metz@futurenet.com (Axel Metz)
