Selling at higher levels turns 23,800 into key barrier for Nifty: Analysts

Benchmark Nifty ended a choppy week 2.2% down at 23,643 after two consecutive weeks of gains, weighed down by rupee depreciation and elevated oil prices. The index fell below its 50-day moving average of 23,800, a key short-term average that could now act as an immediate hurdle amid selling at higher levels, analysts said.

NAGRAJ SHETTI
SENIOR TECHNICAL RESEARCH ANALYST, HDFC SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty slipped into minor weakness amid range-bound movement as a small red candle with an upper shadow was formed on the daily chart, indicating choppy movement in the market and the emergence of minor weakness near the crucial resistance of 23,800, as per the change in polarity. On the weekly chart, Nifty formed a long bear candle with a long lower shadow, signalling the emergence of buying interest around the 23,200 level during a weak trend. The index is expected to oscillate within a broader range of 23,800-23,200 levels this week.

Trading Strategies: Lacklustre movement is likely to continue this week within the 23,800-23,200 range. One may look to buy Nifty May futures on dips around 23,250- 23,200 for an upside potential of 250-300 points, with a stop loss at 23,100 this week. Also, one may look to short Nifty May futures on a rise around 23,850-23,900 for a downside potential of 250-300 points, with a stop loss at 24,000.

TOP STOCK BETS
Indus Towers Buy | CMP: Rs 428| Stop loss: Rs 415 | Target price: Rs 455

After witnessing range-bound weakness over the last few weeks, the stock has broken out of the range and closed above the downward-sloping trendline at Rs 418. Expanding volumes and a positive daily RSI signal are improving momentum in the stock.

Samvardhana Motherson International
Buy | CMP: Rs 130 | Stop loss: Rs 124 | Target price: Rs 140

The stock has been moving up steadily over the last few months, forming a bullish pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms on weekly chart. Support from the 10-day and 20- day EMAs, along with positive volume and RSI signals, indicates a favourable near-term outlook as the stock approaches the key breakout zone of Rs 133-135.

NILESH JAIN
VP & HEAD OF TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, CENTRUM FINVERSE

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty ended the week below its 50-DMA, placed around the 23,800 level. The broader structure of Nifty remains sideways, with the index facing multiple resistances at higher levels. Momentum indicators and oscillators have also given a sell crossover, suggesting a weak near-term undertone.

Trading Strategies: Jain recommends deploying a Bear Put Spread in the upcoming weekly expiry. Buy 1 lot of 23,600 Put at 133 Sell 1 lot of 23,400 Put at 70 This results in a net debit of 63 points, with the stop loss in the spread placed at 20 points. The maximum loss will be capped at Rs 2,795. The strategy offers a maximum profit potential of 137 points per lot, or Rs 8,905, while the breakeven point is placed at 23,463.

TOP STOCK BETS
Indus Towers
Buy | CMP: Rs 430| Stop loss: Rs 413 | Target price: Rs 460

The stock formed a strong base and gave a breakout from a descending triangle pattern. Momentum indicators and oscillators on the daily chart have also given a fresh buy crossover.

Aditya Birla Capital
Buy | CMP: Rs 356 | Stop loss: Rs 340 | Target price: Rs 388

The stock witnessed a gradual upmove and crossed its immediate hurdle at 21-DMA around `349, while continuing to trade above its short- and long-term moving averages. Strong volumes alongside the recent price action indicate sustained buying interest and reinforce the bullish undertone.

CHANDAN TAPARIA
HEAD – DERIVATIVES & TECHNICALS WEALTH MANAG, MOTILAL OSWAL FIN SER

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Nifty is in the process of forming a narrow-range pattern on monthly charts, but a bearish-to-volatile setup on the weekly chart suggests a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears within a broader trading range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remained flat until last week, has now given a bearish crossover. Nifty must hold key support near the 23,250-23,333 zone to witness a bounce towards 23,950, and then 24,222-24,444 levels, while a failure to hold 23,333 could trigger fresh pressure and drag the index towards the previous support zone of 22,800.

Trading Strategies: The recommended strategy for Nifty options for the monthly expiry on May 26, 2026, is a Bear Put Spread, suitable for a mildly negative bias. Traders are advised to buy one lot of the 23,700 strike Puts and simultaneously sell one lot of 23,400 Puts.

Maximum risk in the strategy is 115 points, or Rs 7,475 per lot, while the maximum potential profit is 185 points, or Rs 12,025 per lot, if the index expires below the 23,400 zone towards the monthly expiry.

TOP STOCK BETS

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries
Buy | CMP: Rs 1,878| Stop loss: Rs 1,820 | Target price: Rs 2,000

The stock has formed a bullish Pole and Flag pattern on the daily chart, indicating continuation of the ongoing uptrend. Strong support near the Rs 1,820 zone, firmness in the Nifty Pharma index and a rising ADX line suggest further upside towards the Rs 1,950- 2,000 range.

Arvind Limited
Buy | CMP: Rs 451 | Stop loss: Rs 425 | Target price: Rs 495

Arvind has given a major breakout above the Rs 410-430 zone on monthly chart after a bullish Pole and Flag pattern. The stock has also given a consolidation breakout above Rs 450 on the daily chart, and follow-up buying could trigger the next rally towards Rs 495.