Titan Company shares gain 2%. Why JPMorgan, others see up to 28% upside after analyst call?

Shares of India’s largest jewelry retailer rose 2% to their day’s high of Rs 4,295 on the BSE on Friday after brokerages continued to retain its bullish stance on the stock following the company’s latest analyst meeting. With today’s gain, the stock is up for a fourth straight session.

The meet came at a time when the outlook for gold and jewellery demand remained uncertain. Sentiment has been weighed down by a combination of factors, including fading expectations of interest rate cuts amid rising oil prices linked to the Iran conflict, an increase in import duties, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi‘s call for consumers to refrain from buying gold for a year to help arrest the rupee’s sharp decline.

During the call, the Tata Group company outlined ambitious growth targets for FY26-30, aiming to double both its consolidated revenue and EBIT over the period. This implies a revenue and earnings CAGR of about 20% through FY30.

Within its domestic portfolio, the jewellery business, comprising Tanishq, Mia and Zoya, is expected to deliver 2x revenue growth and 1.9x growth in EBIT. CaratLane has been assigned a more aggressive growth trajectory, with management targeting 2.3x revenue growth and 2.5x EBIT expansion, translating into a CAGR of around 25%, driven by continued premiumisation and operating leverage.

Should you buy, sell or hold Titan shares?

JPMorgan, with a Buy call and a target price of Rs 5,400, forecasts an upside of 28% from current levels. JPMorgan says Titan’s core jewellery business continues to benefit from structural growth drivers, including the ongoing formalisation of the jewellery market, where the company gained 50-60 basis points of market share in FY26.

Near-term demand trends also remain encouraging. JPMorgan noted that buyer growth rebounded in the fourth quarter, driven by customers returning to the market amid rising gold prices, the advancement of wedding-related purchases and improving traction in studded jewellery.

The brokerage added that Titan’s ability to sustain demand in a high-gold-price environment remains a key differentiator. Initiatives such as 18-carat and 14-carat jewellery offerings, lightweight products, exchange programmes and grammage-based purchase plans help keep jewellery affordable and accessible to consumers.

Motilal Oswal has reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Titan Company with a target price of Rs 5,250, implying an upside potential of 24%. The brokerage believes Titan continues to outperform other organised jewellery players due to its superior competitive positioning across sourcing, studded jewellery mix, youth-focused offerings and reinvestment strategy. It noted that Tanishq’s strong brand recall and entrenched business moat are difficult to replicate, which should help the brand maintain its leadership position in the jewellery segment.The brokerage also expects the company’s non-jewellery businesses to continue scaling up and contribute meaningfully to growth over the medium term. While acknowledging the impact of regulatory headwinds and volatile gold prices on near-term performance, Motilal Oswal said Titan remains well placed to navigate these challenges through continued diversification.

JM Financial has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on Titan Company with a target price of Rs 4,900, implying an upside potential of 16%.

The brokerage said Titan’s recent analyst meeting reinforced its positive view on the company despite near-term challenges arising from elevated gold prices and regulatory changes. According to JM Financial, management laid out a strategy to create growth engines beyond jewellery by investing in businesses such as eyecare, watches and other emerging segments through premiumisation, omnichannel expansion and category development.

JM Overall, JM Financial believes Titan remains one of India’s highest-quality consumer discretionary franchises, backed by category leadership, strong execution capabilities and multiple long-term growth drivers.

Titan shares have risen 11.5% in the last six months and about 22% in the last 1 year.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)