Will SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO set the ball rolling for Reliance Jio and NSE listings in India?

SpaceX‘s $75 billion IPO has grabbed global attention, becoming the largest initial share sale in history and pushing Elon Musk’s company into the ranks of the world’s most valuable listed firms. The blockbuster debut has also meant that it could encourage India’s own mega IPO candidates, including Jio Platforms and the NSE, although the path, according to investment bankers, is not straightforward.

While SpaceX has demonstrated that investor appetite for large growth stories remains intact, bankers that the timing of Jio and NSE’s public offerings will be determined largely by domestic market conditions rather than developments in the United States.

“The outcome of the SpaceX IPO is unlikely to bear significant influence on Indian companies looking to list,” said Yatin Singh, CEO-Investment Banking at Emkay Global Financial Services. “SpaceX is an AI play. It, along with the upcoming IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, is poised to benefit from the massive crowding-in of investor interest in the AI theme.”

According to Singh, the comparison between SpaceX and India’s prospective mega listings is limited because they represent very different investment propositions.

“Jio and NSE, though unique assets in the Indian context, aren’t really linked to the AI theme. Their IPO launch timing will depend on the state of Indian markets more than anything else,” he said.

He added that easing geopolitical concerns could improve the backdrop for large offerings. “With a US-Iran ceasefire on the anvil, these IPOs could see the light of the day soon.”

Another senior investment banker said the listing decisions for both companies would be driven primarily by secondary market sentiment and timing considerations.”The IPOs of Jio and NSE are completely dependent on secondary market conditions in India. Timing will be at the time of their choosing, when they think the noise is less,” the banker said.

Jio Platforms, the digital arm of Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries, is expected to be one of the largest IPO candidates in India’s history. The company has recently overhauled its listing plans. Earlier this year, The Economic Times reported that Reliance had decided to move away from an offer-for-sale structure in favour of a predominantly fresh issue after discussions with existing investors over valuation.

Under the revised approach, proceeds would flow into Jio itself rather than existing shareholders exiting through the IPO. The move is also intended to avoid excessive valuation expectations and create room for post-listing appreciation.

According to Bloomberg, Reliance has slowed some preparations as it reviews the structure of the transaction amid geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility. The company still intends to file draft papers and remains ready to proceed when market conditions improve, although no firm timeline has been announced.

The proposed IPO could raise as much as $4 billion, potentially surpassing Hyundai Motor India’s $3.3 billion share sale and becoming the largest listing ever in the Indian market.

The offering would also arrive at an important time for India’s primary market. Equity fundraising through IPOs has moderated this year after two record years, making a large transaction such as Jio’s a significant event for both domestic and international investors.

NSE inches closer to IPO

NSE is also preparing for a landmark public offering after receiving regulatory clearance earlier this year. Media reports suggest NSE could file its draft red herring prospectus as early as next week.

The proposed listing has been under discussion for several years and gained momentum after the Securities and Exchange Board of India granted a no-objection certificate earlier this year.

The IPO is expected to be among the largest capital market listings in India and would provide an exit opportunity for several long-term institutional shareholders.

NSE remains the country’s dominant stock exchange and one of the most profitable exchange businesses globally. Its listing is widely viewed as a milestone event for Indian capital markets.

Different markets, different drivers

While SpaceX’s success highlights investors’ willingness to back large-scale growth stories, bankers believe the factors driving demand in the US differ from those influencing Indian listings.

SpaceX has benefited from investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, space technology and Elon Musk’s track record. The company is also expected to receive significant passive inflows through fast-track inclusion in major US indices.

Jio and NSE, by contrast, are mature businesses whose valuations will be driven more by earnings visibility, domestic liquidity conditions and broader sentiment toward Indian equities.

That means the success of India’s biggest upcoming IPOs may depend less on what happens on Wall Street and more on whether local markets remain supportive when promoters finally decide to pull the trigger.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)