2026 Emmy Predictions: Who Should Win & Who Will Win

The nominations for the 2026 Emmys have been announced, but the race isn’t over yet. Tinseltown’s best and brightest have been blessed with Emmy nominations, but the actual award can only go to one of them (in each category).

Between returning favorites like The Pitt and The Bear and promising newcomers like Pluribus and Widow’s Bay, there are a lot of great shows getting recognized at this year’s Emmys. But who will take home the gold?

Outstanding Drama Series

• The Diplomat
• The Gilded Age
• A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
• Paradise
• The Pitt
• Pluribus
• Slow Horses
• Your Friends and Neighbors

Who Should Win: Pluribus was the most complex, original, masterfully constructed TV drama of the past year, and maybe the past decade. Vince Gilligan has done it again, and unless the Academy is biased against science fiction, Pluribus should repeat Breaking Bad’s Emmy success.

Who Will Win: The Pitt was the favorite last year, and despite some pacing and logic issues in season 2 (episodes under an hour, Mel’s improbable deposition, etc.), it remains the favorite this year.

Outstanding Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary
• The Bear
• Hacks
• Margo’s Got Money Troubles
• Nobody Wants This
• Only Murders in the Building
• Shrinking
• Widow’s Bay

Who Should Win: Widow’s Bay is the most exciting new show of the year, striking the tricky balance between horror and humor with such aplomb that it makes it look easy.

Who Will Win: Hacks’ final season was a perfect swansong, so it’ll probably get a courtesy Emmy on its way out the door, and Widow’s Bay can have one for season 2.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series

• Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age)
• Chase Infiniti (The Testaments)
• Keri Russell (The Diplomat)
• Rhea Seahorn (Pluribus)
• Zendaya (Euphoria)

Who Should Win: Rhea Seahorn was robbed of an Emmy six years in a row on Better Call Saul, so she’d better get one for her incredible performance as Carol Sturka.

Who Will Win: Zendaya won Outstanding Lead Actress for the last two seasons of Euphoria, and even though this one took a nosedive in quality, her performance continued to be the best part of the show, so she’ll probably get one last trophy to complete the collection.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series

• Sterling K. Brown (Paradise)
• Gary Oldman (Slow Horses)
• Mark Ruffalo (Task)
• Rufus Sewell (The Diplomat)
• Noah Wyle (The Pitt)

Who Should Win: After two back-to-back snubs, Gary Oldman deserves to finally win an Emmy for his oddly lovable turn as Jackson Lamb in Slow Horses.

Who Will Win: Noah Wyle will undoubtedly be the returning champ this year; his portrayal of Dr. Robby has only gotten more charismatic and compelling throughout the second season, and that final scene with the baby is tailor-made for an Emmy clip.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series

• Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
• Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)
• Elle Fanning (Margo’s Got Money Troubles)
• Lisa Kudrow (The Comeback)
• Jean Smart (Hacks)

Who Should Win: Jean Smart and Lisa Kudrow both bowed out of their most iconic roles with their career-best work, and either would be deserving of this award.

Who Will Win: Jean Smart is a shoo-in. Valerie Cherish makes a comeback once a decade, but Smart has been the consistent favorite through Hacks’ entire run.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series

• Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Wonder Man)
• Steve Carell (Rooster)
• Matthew Rhys (Widow’s Bay)
• Jason Segel (Shrinking)
• Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)

Who Should Win: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II was a revelation in Wonder Man, but Matthew Rhys carried Widow’s Bay. His flustered reactions to all the horrors around him sold both the terror and the comedy, which is really tough to pull off.

Who Will Win: Matthew Rhys has so much goodwill behind him, and the word of mouth on Widow’s Bay is so strong, that this could be a sweep.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series

• Patrick Ball (The Pitt)
• Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
• Shawn Hatosy (The Pitt)
• Gerran Howell (The Pitt)
• Tom Pelphrey (Task)
• Carlos-Manuel Vesga (Pluribus)

Who Should Win: Carlos-Manuel Vesga gave a captivating turn as Manousos in Pluribus, and he was a “supporting” player opposite Seehorn in the truest sense.

Who Will Win: After graduating from guest to recurring, Shawn Hatosy could take home his second Emmy for The Pitt.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series

• Taylor Dearden (The Pitt)
• Fiona Dourif (The Pitt)
• Allison Janney (The Diplomat)
• Katherine LaNasa (The Pitt)
• Julianne Nicholson (Paradise)
• Karolina Wydra (Pluribus)

Who Should Win: Katherine LaNasa continues to steal the show as Dana on The Pitt.

Who Will Win: Katherine LaNasa had better make room for a second Emmy on her shelf.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series

Image via Apple TV+

• Paul W. Downs (Hacks)
• Colman Domingo (The Four Seasons)
• Harrison Ford (Shrinking)
• Nick Offerman (Margo’s Got Money Troubles)
• Michael Urie (Shrinking)
• Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)

Who Should Win: Nick Offerman gave a really moving, soulful, vulnerable performance as a recovering addict and loving grandfather in Margo’s Got Money Troubles.

Who Will Win: After being snubbed for the past two seasons of Shrinking, this could finally be Harrison Ford’s year.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series

• Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
• Dale Dickey (Widow’s Bay)
• Kate O’Flynn (Widow’s Bay)
• Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
• Megan Stalter (Hacks)
• Jessica Williams (Shrinking)

Who Should Win: Kate O’Flynn was a revelation as Patricia in Widow’s Bay. Performances like that are why this category exists.

Who Will Win: Hannah Einbinder, who’s really more of a co-lead in Hacks, will probably take this one.

Outstanding Writing For A Drama Series

• The Diplomat (Peter Akerman and Debora Cahn for “Amagansett”)
• The Pitt (Kirsten Pierre-Geyfman & R. Scott Gemmill for “1:00 PM”)
• The Pitt (Valerie Chu for “12:00 PM”)
• Industry (Mickey Down and Konrad Kay for “Dear Henry”)
• Pluribus (Vince Gilligan for “We is Us”)
• Slow Horses (Will Smith for “Scars”)
• Task (Brad Ingelsby for “A Still Small Voice”)

Who Should Win: Vince Gilligan’s Pluribus pilot was meticulously structured, fiercely original, and just a damn good story.

Who Will Win: I’d be surprised if Vince Gilligan doesn’t win this one.

Outstanding Writing For A Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary (Quinta Brunson for “Team Building”)
• The Chair Company (Tim Robinson and Zach Kanin for “Life goes by too f**king fast, it really does”)
• The Comeback (Michael Patrick King and Lisa Kudrow for “Valerie Does It All”)
• Hacks (Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky for “Hacks”)
• Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat (Anthony King for “Mergers and Acquisitions”)
• Widow’s Bay (Katie Dippold for “Welcome to Widow’s Bay”)

Who Should Win: Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky really stuck the landing with that Hacks finale.

Who Will Win: Michael Patrick King and Lisa Kudrow might get a pat on the back from the Hollywood community for satirizing and criticizing generative A.I. in The Comeback.

Outstanding Directing For A Drama Series

• The Gilded Age (Salli Richardson-Whitfield for “My Mind Is Made Up”)
• Paradise (Hanelle M. Culpepper for “Exodus”)
• The Pitt (Noah Wyle for “12:00 PM”)
• Pluribus (Vince Gilligan for “We is Us”)
• Slow Horses (Saul Metzstein for “Scars”)
• Task (Salli Richardson-Whitfield for “Out beyond ideas of wrongdoing and rightdoing, there is a river”)

Who Should Win: Vince Gilligan’s Pluribus pilot isn’t just a series premiere; it’s a cinematic masterpiece, beautifully shot and edited.

Who Will Win: Again, Vince Gilligan seems like a shoo-in. Nothing else compares to Pluribus.

Outstanding Directing For A Comedy Series

• Abbott Elementary (Randall Einhorn for “Ballgame”)
• The Bear (Christopher Storer for “Bears”)
• The Chair Company (Andrew DeYoung for “Life goes by too f**king fast, it really does”)
• Hacks (Lucia Aniello for “Hacks”)
• The Ms. Pat Show (Mary Lou Belli for “Give It Arrest”)
• Widow’s Bay (Hiro Murai for “Welcome to Widow’s Bay”)

Who Should Win: Andrew DeYoung’s direction of The Chair Company struck a really unique, really difficult balance between Parallax View-esque conspiracy thriller and I Think You Should Leave-style surreal comedy.

Who Will Win: Hiro Murai managed a similarly tricky tonal balance in Widow’s Bay, and that show could end up sweeping the Emmys this year.

Location

The Peacock Theater, Los Angeles, CA

Dates

September 14, 2026