Box Office: ‘The Odyssey’ From Christopher Nolan Eyes $200M+ Global Bow

A year after selling out 70MM Imax showtimes, Universal‘s second Christopher Nolan movie post his multi-Oscar winning Oppenheimer, The Odyssey, finally arrives.

While we had a puffy projection last week for Disney’s Moana of $130M WW, fueled by lofty tracking, few sources see the big feature take of Homer’s epic poem getting sidelined by sirens, nor moviegoers seduced by Calypso and held captive on a deserted island. The big question is how much does The Odyssey overindex, and if it doesn’t, it’s due to appointment viewing as the pitch here is to watch the feature in Imax, the way it was shot and meant to be seen. There isn’t a major studio wide entry standing in the way of the star studded Matt Damon, Robert Pattinson, Zendaya, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Jon Bernthal, Lupita Nyong’o movie in its second weekend.

Currently, we’re hearing $85M-$100M domestic, with another $110M overseas in 73 territories and 22,700 screens for a global start that’s bound to be $200M+. We’re told that this is the same set of markets that Uni launched Oppenheimer in, however, Italy and Greece are going day-and-date this time (they were released in late August). Korea, Japan and China are going later. Also, Oppenheimer bowed on 17,500 offshore screens to $98.7M and a global start of $181.1M. Unlike last time with Oppenheimer which had a sister blockbuster on the marquee in Warner Bros’ Barbie, there isn’t another new studio wide release this weekend.

What about the World Cup? UK, a lucrative Nolan market is in the running, and has a game tomorrow. Should UK make it to Sunday’s final game, does Odysseus fall to his knees? Sources believe audiences will find the movie on an off-World Cup day (Oppenheimer in reported B.O. opened to $13.9M in the UK and legged out to $75M+), not to mention they’ve already bought their tickets in advance, read four Imax 70MM sites in Europe went on sale a year out at the BFI Imax London and London Science Museum. Sellouts a year ago also include the Melbourne Museum Imax and the Oskar Imax Plaza in Prague. Mel The Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, Robert Downey, Jr. feature drama about the man who built the atom bomb saw its highest grossing territories from UK, China ($61.6M), Germany ($52.7M), France ($43.2M), Italy ($31M), Australia ($29.7M). The expectation is that Nolan will rally again in UK, France, and Italy again. There’s also hope around India for Odyssey with that country delivering $19M to Oppenheimer. Nolan, Damon and Holland recently made a stop in Mumbai, in addition to the London World Premiere, and a stop in Paris. The NYC U.S. premiere is tonight. The review embargo lifts tomorrow.

The three-hour R-rated movie sets sail in the U.S. on Thursday with 2PM previews. How front loaded is it due to all the large format screen sales? Currently, non-Uni sources tell us that advance ticket sales are very robust with around $30M -$40M (Wicked: For Good was over $60M, Deadpool & Wolverine was $50M). How much of that is for this weekend remains the question as there are sales for Monday and Tuesday. Even if Odyssey comes in at the lower end of its range of $85M, it’s because audiences are waiting to land the best seats with the best showtimes. While no audience score has registered yet on Rotten Tomatoes, there’s been a very positive word of mouth from the media who’ve watched the epic, who are already anointing it with awards season buzz. The other fun-fun here is that it’s arguably the first time that two major stars, who are married, have had two back-to-back movies coming out within a month’s time: We’re talking Zendaya and Tom Holland who co-star (and don’t have any scenes together) in Odyssey, but are headlining Sony/Marvel Studio’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day on July 31.

Nolan’s films, including Oppenheimer, Tenet, Dunkirk, Interstellar, Inception and The Dark Knight trilogy, have earned more than $6 billion at the global box office and have won 18 Oscars and earned 49 nominations, including Best Picture and  Best Director for Oppenheimer. 

Moana hopes to ease -55% in weekend 2 domestic in the $20M range, counting on females to show up. The Dwayne Johnson movie made $4.4M stateside yesterday taking its four-day total to $47.5M.