Quantum computing still feels like uncharted territory, yet the threat it poses is significant. On the one hand, it promises advancements in areas such as financial modelling. On the other, it has the potential to undermine the encryption standards that protect governments, businesses, and critical infrastructure around the world.
Systems and Engineering Director at Fortinet.
People often draw parallels with AI, but the comparison is imperfect. AI is transforming how organizations operate. Quantum computing could fundamentally challenge the cryptographic foundations that protect sensitive data and digital communications. While the timeline remains uncertain, organizations need to prepare now. The earlier they start to assess their cryptographic exposure and planning for post-quantum security, the better prepared they will be when the threat materializes.
Quantum is speeding up
Investment in quantum computing is growing, with major economies such as the US already directing significant funding in the technology. The UK has also previously committed up to £2 billion in quantum innovation and aims to become the first country in the world to manufacture and deploy quantum computers at scale.
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This is driving the development of quantum computing, which could bring significant benefits. By tackling complex calculations that would take traditional computers years to complete, the technology could optimize energy and transport networks or streamline global supply chains. Yet, like AI, it also poses a significant cybersecurity risk.
Most of the today’s public-key cryptography, including RSA and elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), relies on mathematical problems that would take conventional computers a significant amount of time to solve. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could solve these at an exponentially faster rate, potentially undermining the encryption used to protect sensitive information.
While there is no definitive date for when quantum computing will be able to break widely used encryption – often referred to as ‘Q-Day’ – the cybersecurity threat posed by the technology is already here.
The threat is already here
Threat actors are deploying a strategy known as ‘harvest now, decrypt later’, collecting and storing encrypted information today with the intention of decrypting it once quantum computers reach sufficient capability. This means information does not need to be vulnerable today to be at risk.
This is particularly concerning for sensitive, long-lived data that needs to remain confidential, including government and critical infrastructure data, intellectual property and confidential business information. Data intercepted now could remain secure, only to become exposed once quantum technology advances later.
Ultimately, organizations – regardless of industry – cannot afford to wait until Q-Day arrives. Now is the time to transition to quantum-safe security. Yet, it can be difficult to know where to start.
Protection starts now
The first step for organizations is to understand where they are currently exposed. In practice, that means identifying the information that needs long-term protection and understanding the cryptography used to secure it. A cryptographic audit can help bring these dependencies to light, enabling teams to decide which systems and data need attention first.
Those findings can guide the transition towards quantum-resistant security, in which post-quantum cryptography (PQC) will play a central role. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)’s Post-Quantum Cryptography standards provide a clear starting point for organizations planning to migrate their existing environments.
Other approaches have more specific applications. Quantum key distribution (QKD) uses quantum mechanics to share encryption keys in a way that can reveal interception attempts. It requires specialized infrastructure, making it more suited to high value uses than to widespread deployment. The right approach will depend on what an organization needs to protect, how long that information must remain confidential and the systems it relies on.
AI has demonstrated just how quickly emerging technologies can transform cybersecurity, and quantum computing could be next. Organizations cannot afford to wait for the threat to fully materialize, and should begin the transition today by mapping exposure, testing alternatives and establishing migration priorities. The sooner they do so, the more time they will have to manage the transition before their information becomes at risk.
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Dave Spillane
