Oil prices soar 14% in October to 6-month high as US weighs fresh Iran strikes after midterms. More pain ahead?

Crude oil price this week

Brent crude futures for December delivery rose $2.76, or 2.4%, to settle at $117.64 a barrel after touching an intraday high of $118 on Friday. The more actively traded January contract gained $2.63 to $113.43 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced $2.12, or 2.08%, to close at $104.12. For October, Brent gained 13.6%, while WTI advanced 15.2%.

The gains followed a Wall Street Journal report that a senior US military commander had briefed US President Donald Trump on potential military options on Thursday. Trump has repeatedly indicated that he could resume airstrikes on Tehran after next week’s midterm elections.

Security risks in the Strait of Hormuz came back into focus after an unidentified projectile hit a tanker on Thursday as it completed its outbound passage through the waterway, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). The incident highlighted the continuing threat to shipping, despite producers having resumed cargo movements through the strait.

The US has directed non-emergency government employees and their family members to leave Saudi Arabia from October 23, citing security concerns. The US embassy in Riyadh announced the decision on Friday, referring to Houthi attacks on civilian airports and other critical infrastructure, Reuters reported.

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Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi militants said on Thursday that they had targeted several locations in Saudi Arabia, including the Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries, along with a production facility at Abqaiq operated by state-owned Saudi Aramco. A Saudi-led coalition also reported intercepting a cruise missile launched by the Houthis towards the kingdom’s western region.

Meanwhile, Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday as part of coordinated efforts to secure an agreement between Washington and Tehran, an official briefed on the discussions told Reuters.Also read: Oil-to-chemicals business powers Reliance Industries’ record quarterly net profit, up 34% to ₹29,550 crore

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that Vice President JD Vance had contacted Iran to help arrange medical supplies. This followed US media reports that Vance had written to Iran’s top security official in an effort to restart peace negotiations.

Where are prices headed?

Per a Reuters report, Oil markets could see further volatility over the next couple of weeks amid Israel’s recent elections and the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3, according to a briefing by Saxo Bank on Thursday. The Danish bank expects crude prices to remain in a higher range of $70 to $90 a barrel even after the conflict ends, compared with the pre-war range of $60 to $70.

Uncertainty over the course of the conflict continues to make it difficult to assess the outlook for oil markets. JPMorgan analysts said the trajectory of the war remained unclear. At the start of the conflict, the bank had expected the US administration to avoid crossing certain economic thresholds. However, seven months later, several of those thresholds had been breached, with no clear strategy yet in place to end the conflict.

The threat of further supply disruptions has added to expectations of higher crude prices. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks had shown how disruptions to shipping could spread and become more severe. Goldman Sachs estimates that oil prices could climb to $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East intensify. However, prices could decline towards $80 a barrel if exports return to normal.

Struyven said shipping-related risks had become a key factor influencing oil prices, adding that Goldman Sachs sees significant upside potential for crude. The bank also expects natural gas and refined fuel prices to rise, as disruptions to supply tend to have a greater impact on gas and refined products than on crude oil.

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