Oil Price Today (November 9): Crude oil falls below $100 again as Trump says fresh attacks ‘highly unlikely’. What are experts saying?

Prices came under further pressure after US President Donald Trump indicated that he was unlikely to authorise fresh attacks on Iran if negotiations to end the conflict continued to make progress. In a phone interview with CNN, Trump said further military action was “highly unlikely” to be necessary, provided both sides reached a strong agreement.

Read more: D-Street poised for positive start as GIFT Nifty signals gains

Crude oil price on November 9

Brent crude futures fell 1.04%, to $97.30 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 58 cents, or 0.60%, to $90.29 a barrel. Brent briefly slipped by more than $1 during the session.

Live Events

Trump had suggested that major US attacks on Iran could resume following last week’s US midterm elections. However, there has been no indication of a large-scale military operation so far. Iran, meanwhile, has warned that it would retaliate by targeting US and Israeli interests.

The Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections also appeared to have reinforced expectations among traders that the conflict would not escalate significantly, contributing to the sharp decline in oil prices.

However, tensions across the region remain elevated, with fresh attacks reported despite diplomatic efforts. Iran-backed Houthi rebels from Yemen struck Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, on Sunday, damaging offices of state-owned oil major Saudi Aramco. According to the Saudi Press Agency, the city intercepted a fresh barrage of ballistic and cruise missiles. The damage to Aramco’s offices was minor, with no casualties reported.

Read more: Stocks in news: M&M, BHEL, Adani Enterprises, Wipro, Tata Steel, Siemens and Divi’s Labs

Where are prices headed?
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts, citing growing risks to global supplies. The investment bank warned that Brent crude could surge to $140 a barrel in 2027 if oil production across the Gulf region remains substantially below its 2025 average.

Goldman Sachs increased its December Brent crude forecast to $105 a barrel from $90 earlier. Its projection for US WTI crude was also raised to $94 a barrel from $81.

Under an upside scenario, Brent could reach $140 a barrel and average around $130 in 2027 if Gulf oil production stays 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average, Reuters reported, citing the bank’s projections.

The bank expects geopolitical risks to command a higher premium in oil prices, given the possibility of disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies, the historical duration of major supply shocks and the difficulties involved in achieving a lasting diplomatic resolution.

JPMorgan analysts also highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the conflict, saying it remained difficult to predict how the war would unfold. At the outset, the bank had expected the US administration to avoid crossing certain economic thresholds. However, seven months into the conflict, several of those thresholds have been breached, while a clear strategy to bring the war to an end has yet to emerge.

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Veer Sharma, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Veer Sharma and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here