UBS expects global oil markets to ease in October-December.
“In upcoming quarters, crude price moderation could expand integrated margins for Indian SOE (state owned enterprises) OMCs to ₹14-15/ltr (long-term average: ₹10-11/ltr),” said UBS in its client notes. “We do not foresee any retail fuel price cuts if crude stays above or near US$80/barrel.” “Our cautious view on refining translates to profit shifting from refining to marketing, given India’s unchanged retail fuel prices.”

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