This month’s pullback in technology stocks puts the pressure on Meta Platforms to wow investors when it reports results, and prove that its ambitious AI visions are worth the steep investment. Analysts expect the social media giant to earn $4.73 per share on $38.3 billion in revenue when it reports second-quarter results after the bell Wednesday. More important to Wall Street is the company’s capital expenditures — or spending — as investors are demanding to see clear signs that hefty investments in AI are beginning to pay off . META 1M mountain Meta shares this month The intensified attention toward AI spending comes on the heels of Alphabet’s quarterly print and during a “make-or-break” week with earnings from four tech behemoths. While Alphabet topped Wall Street estimates, its rising expenses spurred a sell-off across the sector. Meta’s shares are already down more than 6% in July, with a more than 2% slide last week. There is a silver lining. Wolfe Research’s Shweta Khajuria said Alphabet ‘s results may lower the bar for others, including Meta. Analysts polled by StreetAccount expect the company to tally $9.5 billion in capital expenditures for the period. For the year, the company expects capex of between $35 billion and $40 billion. Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak said capex will continue to “meaningfully” accelerate into 2025 and 2026 if the social media giant shows better engagement and revenue from the new projects. Industry discussions already suggest an uptick in Reels engagement. “Even without these green shoots, we still see a path toward ~$29 of base case [free cash flow] in ’26,” he wrote. Earlier this month, Raymond James analyst Josh Beck raised his 2025 capex estimates to $50 billion as the company builds out Llama, its updated large language models. But Beck also sees Meta shares going higher as he raised his price target to $600. Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski expects the earnings report help investors get a better sense of the company’s outlook. “CapEx uncertainty likely remains, but post 2Q call investors should feel more constructive on ’25 revenue and margins,” he wrote. An uptick in advertising Wall Street is also keeping an eye on advertising figures this quarter, with Nowak viewing Meta as best situated to weather any uncertainty. “Through the noise, 2Q data signals revenue strength tied to higher Temu global ad spend (+ > 100%Y/Y), while return of media and tech ad spend should benefit Meta,” added Bernstein’s Mark Shmulik. META YTD mountain Share performance this year The upcoming election and Olympics in Paris could prove a tailwind for the company by boosting cost-per-minute figures, said Deutsche Bank’s Benjamin Black. This setup underpins his confidence in the company reporting near the “high-end” of its second-quarter forecast. A potential TikTok ban in the new year could also bode well for advertising, added Bank of America’s Justin Post. “We remain positive on Meta & thing Reels, Messaging, & AI drive ad improvements are still early, and could lead to positive product surprises & revenue upside,” he wrote.
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