Exclusive-Harris widens lead over Trump to 47%-40%, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds By Reuters

By Jason Lange

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 47% to 40% in the race to win the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, as she appeared to blunt Trump’s edge on the economy and jobs, a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday found.

Harris had a six percentage point lead based on unrounded figures – which showed her with support from 46.61% of registered voters while Trump was backed by 40.48%, according to the three-day poll that closed on Monday. The Democrat’s lead was slightly higher than her five-point advantage over Trump in a Sept 11-12 Reuters/Ipsos poll. 

The latest poll had a margin of error of about four percentage points.

Asked which candidate had the better approach on the “economy, unemployment and jobs,” some 43% of voters in the poll picked Trump and 41% selected Harris. Trump’s two-point advantage on the topic compares to his three-point lead in an August Reuters/Ipsos poll and an 11 point lead over Harris in late July shortly after she launched her campaign.

Harris entered the race after President Joe Biden folded his reelection effort following a poor debate performance against Trump in June. Trump at the time was widely seen as the frontrunner, partly based on his perceived strength on the economy after several years of high inflation under the Biden administration. 

Reuters/Ipsos polling between April and June also showed voters picked Trump over Biden on the economy, unemployment and jobs by between five and eight points.

To be sure, Trump has still had wide leads in some measures of confidence in his economic stewardship. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from August asked voters which candidate had a better approach on the “the U.S. economy” – without reference to jobs or unemployment – and Trump led Harris by 11 points, 45% to 36%. 

While national surveys including Reuters/Ipsos polls give important signals on the views of the electorate, the state-by-state results of the Electoral College determine the winner, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed Trump leading in three of these states – Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 1,029 U.S. adults online, nationwide, including 871 registered voters. Among these, 785 were considered the most likely to turn out on Election Day. Among these likely voters, Harris led 50% to 44%, though similar to her lead among all registered voters, her advantage was only five points when using unrounded figures.