Par Pacific stock upgraded as buyback strategy drives value

On Wednesday, Par Pacific Holdings (NYSE:) received an upgrade in stock rating from JPMorgan, moving from Neutral to Overweight. However, the firm also reduced the price target for Par Pacific to $30.00 from the previous $36.00. The adjustment comes after Par Pacific’s shares have significantly underperformed compared to other refiners since the beginning of the year.

The company, which had a notable outperformance in 2023, is now facing a tougher environment, particularly in diesel cracks where it has substantial exposure.

Additionally, its significant presence in Asia has been affected by both the refining margins, known as cracks, and the demand sentiment in the region. Despite these challenges, Par Pacific has actively pursued share buybacks following the completion of the Billings acquisition.

JPMorgan anticipates that Par Pacific will continue its share repurchase strategy, especially as its stock price has seen a sharp decline. The firm acknowledges the potential ongoing difficulties in the near term for Par Pacific’s business fundamentals.

Nonetheless, the upgrade to Overweight reflects JPMorgan’s view that the current valuation of Par Pacific’s shares is highly attractive, even when applying conservative estimates that assume a low point in business cycles, often referred to as trough-like multiples.

In other recent news, Par Petroleum reported a strong Q2 2024 performance with an adjusted EBITDA of $82 million and an adjusted net income of $0.49 per share. Amid these developments, the company repurchased $66 million worth of shares, demonstrating its commitment to shareholder value.

The investment firms Piper Sandler, Mizuho Securities, and TD Cowen recalibrated their expectations for Par Petroleum’s stock performance, revising their price targets to $23.00, $30.00, and $32.00 respectively.

Piper Sandler downgraded the company from Overweight to Neutral due to concerns over potential challenges such as market apprehension regarding Asian refining margins and anticipated maintenance.

In the meantime, Par Petroleum plans to invest approximately $120 million in its Billings facility over the next four to five years. Despite potential challenges in the West Coast margin environment due to competition from renewable diesel and petroleum diesel exports, the company anticipates continued modest restocking of inventories and near mid-cycle margin levels. These recent developments reflect Par Petroleum’s strategic growth initiatives and its dedication to enhancing shareholder value.

InvestingPro Insights

Recent data from InvestingPro sheds additional light on Par Pacific Holdings’ (NYSE:PARR) current financial situation and market performance. The company’s market capitalization stands at $987.48 million, with a notably low P/E ratio of 2.17, suggesting the stock might be undervalued relative to its earnings. This aligns with JPMorgan’s view on the attractiveness of Par Pacific’s current valuation.

InvestingPro Tips highlight that management has been aggressively buying back shares, which corroborates JPMorgan’s expectation of continued share repurchases. This strategy could potentially support the stock price and signal management’s confidence in the company’s prospects.

Despite the recent challenges mentioned in the article, Par Pacific remains profitable, with a reported revenue of $8.76 billion in the last twelve months as of Q2 2024. However, the company’s stock price has fallen significantly over the last year, with a one-year price total return of -50.83% as of the latest data. This decline aligns with the article’s mention of Par Pacific’s underperformance compared to other refiners.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 13 additional tips for Par Pacific Holdings, providing a deeper understanding of the company’s financial health and market position.

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