Ray Dalio says Beijing now has to chose between ‘beautiful deleveraging’ and economic malaise

It’s the biggest rally for Chinese stocks since 2008, after China’s central government unleashed stimulus measures and policy pledges to both jumpstart a stumbling post-pandemic Chinese economy and stabilize a property market mired in a years-long crisis. Beijing’s measures follow months of warnings from analysts and economists that the country needed far more policy support to revive the economy and meet the official growth target of 5%.

China’s policy pivot could be one for the “market-economic history books,” Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, wrote in a LinkedIn post published Tuesday. 

The longtime China bull compared Beijing’s move to the then-European Central Bank president Mario Draghi’s 2012 pledge to do “whatever it takes” to resolve the region’s sovereign debt issues, widely considered a turning point in the crisis. 

Yet Dalio cautioned China would need to do a lot more to fully tackle the country’s economic woes. 

About two weeks ago, Dalio warned China’s situation was “at least as severe as the Japanese situation starting in 1990,” noting that the country needed a “very complicated and politically charged” debt restructuring.

Dalio echoed that warning on Tuesday, saying that China is now at a “fork in the road,” either choosing a “beautiful deleveraging” or letting the debt crisis lead to a Japan-style economic malaise. 

China has one advantage, according to the Bridgewater founder: Most of China’s bad debt is denominated in yuan, with debtors and creditors often both being Chinese citizens. But even then, a debt restructuring will be tricky and politically charged as it will have huge effects on people’s wealth.

Policy moves

Since Sept. 24, Beijing has slashed interest rates, cut the reserve requirement ratio, which is the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves, and released strong statements on stabilizing the property market. Three Chinese cities have subsequently made it easier for people to purchase homes and six major Chinese banks are also adjusting mortgage rates for existing home loans.

In a Politburo meeting Thursday, Chinese officials admitted that “new situations and problems have emerged in the current running of the economy,” lifting investor hopes that more policy support may be coming. 

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose by 6.2% on Wednesday, with some Chinese developers making gains over 15%. Mainland Chinese markets are closed for the week-long National Day Golden Week holiday.