- New study predicts 15 million new Chinese cars will have autonomous tech
- Affordable models will be capable of SAE Level 2 self-driving
- China looks set to fast-track autonomous vehicles
A new study has revealed that around 15 million new cars sold in China will be fitted with at least SAE Level 2 self-driving capabilities this year, including models priced below 100,000 yuan (which is less than $14,000), according to the South China Morning Post.
China EV100, which is a non-governmental organization that includes key players from China’s largest EV manufacturers, claims that two out of three new cars sold on the mainland will have autonomous driving capabilities this year. This will, at the very minimum, allow them to speed up, slow down and change lanes without driver input.
Where these sort of advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) were once the reserve of more expensive models, the mass production of the technology has forced prices down to a point where even the most affordable vehicles can now offer them.
As a quick recap, SAE Level 2 autonomous vehicles offer partial automation, so they can speed up, slow down and even steer, so long as the driver is always ready to take back control, with hands on the wheel just in case.
Stepping up to SAE Level 3 allows drivers to take hands off the wheel and eyes off the road, with the ability to engage with emails on the vehicle’s infotainment system, for example.
Currently, this level is only legally available on a handful of models and only in specific driving conditions in select regions of the world, with Mercedes-Benz and BMW leading the way.
Despite what Elon Musk says, Tesla is still very much at SAE Level 2 until legislation allows for unsupervised Full Self-Driving on public roads.
In China, many automotive manufacturers have already seen the potential of autonomous driving, with UBS analyst Xu Bin predicting that Chinese companies could save around 1.8 trillion yuan in annual labour costs by 2030 as thousands of trucks become driverless, according to South China Morning Post.
Analysis: China is building a fully autonomous future
In China, the self-driving experience doesn’t come with the same stigma that it does in much of the Western world, where drivers are generally wary of its capabilities.
On the contrary, young Chinese buyers are actively seeking out the latest technology when purchasing new vehicles, with increasing levels of autonomy high on the shopping list.
By forcing down the cost of the camera, Lidar, sensor and chipset technology required (let’s not get into how China has managed to do that here), the country has been able to introduce it on a mass scale.
It is widely agreed that higher levels of automation on the road will only really work when vehicles equipped with the required technology reach critical mass.
There’s a much slimmer chance of an accident occurring if everyone on the highway is using some form of auto-pilot system, for example.
Despite this, there are still major automotive players in China that don’t believe we will ever reach a point where a human isn’t involved. One of BYD’s spokespeople told reporters at the 2023 Shanghai Auto Show that it is “basically impossible“.
But with two out of three new cars sold in China this year meeting basic autonomous driving requirements, it won’t be long before parts of the country could legitimately allow for much higher levels of autonomous activity on public roads.
This technological prowess would make it easier to geo-fence certain areas where SAE Level 3 systems are mandatory, for example.
Alternatively, the country could even legislate that every new car sold must be capable of automatically adjusting to speed limits, keeping lanes and autonomously braking, thus creating a more predictable environment for autonomous vehicles to thrive.
It is believed that Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, often regarded as one of the most advanced in the world, will begin testing in China this year.
With a more supportive framework, Elon Musk’s predictions of a fully autonomous future may well be realized… just 7,000-miles away from where it was first conceived.
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