- Dell’Oro group issues latest Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year Forecast Report
- Amongst its findings was the focus of Chinese telcos on FTTR (fiber to the room) and 50Gbps PON deployments
- 50G is a relatively new technology, and I’ve been surprised by the speed at which this is rolling out
China is advancing its broadband infrastructure with its rollout of 50G-PON, a next-generation fiber technology capable of delivering speeds of up to 50Gbps (50,000 Mbps) downstream.
A newly published report by Dell’Oro Group, which gathers information from conversations with equipment vendors and publicly released tender award notifications, projects that PON equipment revenue will grow from $10.5 billion in 2024 to $12.1 billion by 2029.
While this growth will be driven largely by 10Gbps XGS-PON deployments in North America, EMEA, and CALA, China’s 50G-PON deployments place it ahead of the rest of the world. Last year, Omdia forecast that China will be the only commercial market for 50G-PON in 2024 and 2025, accounting for 93 percent of the global market and generating $1.55 billion in revenue by 2027.
Fiber to the Room
PON, or Passive Optical Network, is a fiber-optic technology that enables multiple users to share a single fiber connection using passive optical splitters. This design reduces the need for active electronic components between the provider and end users, lowering infrastructure costs, reducing power consumption, and improving network efficiency.
The 50G-PON ITU-T standard supports theoretical speeds of up to 50 Gbps downstream and up to 25 Gbps upstream, though current real-world deployments in China – led by China Telecom, its regional branch Shanghai Telecom, and ZTE – typically provide 10 Gbps all-optical access.
Beyond 50G-PON, China is also expanding Fiber to the Room (FTTR), which extends fiber-optic connectivity to individual rooms within homes and businesses. Unlike traditional fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) setups, which typically deliver fiber to a central modem and then rely on Ethernet or Wi-Fi for distribution, FTTR brings fiber-optic cables directly to each room, ensuring faster speeds, lower latency, and more stable connections.
Other highlights from Dell’Oro Group’s report include that cable distributed access equipment revenue will peak at $1.3 billion in 2028 as operators continue DOCSIS 4.0 and early fiber deployments.
Fixed wireless CPE is expected to reach its highest revenue in 2025 and 2026, driven by 5G sub-6 GHz and millimeter wave units, while Wi-Fi 7 residential routers and broadband CPE with WLAN are projected to generate $8.9 billion by 2029 as adoption grows among consumers and service providers.
“Quietly, broadband access networks are evolving into large-scale edge compute platforms, with the ability to enable service convergence far more quickly and easily than ever before,” said Jeff Heynen, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group.
“This evolution means that the revenue mix for broadband equipment is shifting over the next five years, with spending on traditional hardware and software now being supplemented by spending on AI and machine learning tools to facilitate convergence and service reliability.”
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waynewilliams@onmail.com (Wayne Williams)
