American debt is growing faster than predicted

Total credit outstanding increased $25.5 billion, according to Federal Reserve data released Monday. The gain exceeded all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

Revolving debt outstanding, which includes credit cards, increased $10.6 billion, the most in five months. Non-revolving credit, such as loans for vehicle purchases and school tuition, surged $14.8 billion in more than a year. 

The increase in borrowing helped fuel the biggest jump in retail sales during the month since early 2023. That included a pickup in purchases in motor vehicles.

However, carrying bigger credit-card balances and loans with high interest rates poses a risk to spending should consumers become more guarded. While Fed policymakers next week are seen taking the first step in reducing their benchmark rate, it will take time for their actions to filter through into cheaper financing costs for consumers.

A New York Fed report last month showed that while the share of overall consumer debt in delinquency held at 3.2% in the second quarter, the share of auto and credit-card loans that were newly delinquent continued to creep higher.

The share of auto loan balances that became at least 30 days delinquent was the largest since 2010. The share of credit card debt that was newly delinquent rose to 9.05%, the most in about 12 years.