Bharti Airtel Q4 Preview: PAT may jump up to 226% YoY on robust ARPU. Up to 35% revenue uptick seen

Telecom major Bharti Airtel will announce its earnings on Tuesday, May 13, where the company is expected to report a robust year-on-year growth in its Q4FY25 profit after tax (PAT) aided by a healthy uptick in its Average Revenue Per User (ARPU).

The net profit rise is seen in a wide range of 90%-226% according to estimates by four brokerages, which is between Rs 4,110 crore and Rs 6,759 crore. The revenue is likely to rise by 23%-35%, falling in the range of Rs 46,200 crore to Rs 50,588 crore.

The estimates of ICICI Securities, Morgan Stanley, Nomura and Mirae Asset Sharekhan have been taken into account.

The highest PAT and revenue estimates have come from ICICI Securities, while Morgan Stanley has the lowest net profit figures and Nomura has the most conservative topline estimates.

The company is expected to report a double-digit YoY uptick in ARPU.

Here’s what brokerages recommended:

ICICI Securities

Bharti Airtel is expected to report a consolidated PAT jump of 226% YoY in Q4FY25 to Rs 6,759 crore. It may fall by 54% on a QoQ basis. The company’s revenue is expected to grow by 35% YoY to Rs 50,588 crore, also marking a 12% increase on a sequential basis.Company’s Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) may jump 51% YoY and 19% QoQ to Rs 29,142 crore while the EBITDA margin expanded to 57.6%, up by 610 basis points YoY and 310 basis points QoQ, reflecting strong cost controls and higher operational efficiency.

ICICI Securities has a ‘buy’ rating on Bharti Airtel for a price target of Rs 1,925.

Our Q4FY25 estimates point to mobile services revenue dip for Bharti Airtel, down 0.1% QoQ, this brokerage said.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is expected to report a PAT jump of 90% YoY, while a decline of 72% sequentially to Rs 4,110 crore. Revenue is expected to rise 26% YoY and 3.4% QoQ to Rs 48,469 crore, supported by healthy subscriber additions.

The EBITDA may stand at Rs 27,244 crore, reflecting a 37% increase over the previous year, though it dipped 6.2% sequentially.

The company’s subscriber base expanded to 361 million, up 2.6% YoY and 1.4% QoQ. Average revenue per user (ARPU) rose to Rs 246, up 18% annually and marginally higher by Rs 0.3 sequentially, indicating stable monetisation trends.

“For the core India business (excluding passive infrastructure), we expect revenue growth of 0.2% QoQ and 16% YoY. This is partially impacted by a decline in the enterprise business as the company is exiting low-margin businesses, which would have impacted numbers for part of the quarter,” Morgan said in a preview note.

“We expect core India EBITDA to improve by 1% QoQ and 8.6% YoY. We expect higher dividend payout in F25 vs F24, outlook for capex numbers in F26 to be lower than F25 and reaffirmation of balancing capital allocation towards lowering debt and paying back to shareholders,” this brokerage said.

Nomura

Bharti Airtel is expected to report a net profit of Rs 5,300 crore for the quarter under review, marking a robust 154% YoY growth, though it could decline 64% on a sequential basis.

Nomura pegs revenue at Rs 46,200 crore, reflecting a 23% YoY increase and a modest 2% QoQ rise. EBITDA may come in at Rs 25,300 crore, rising by 31% YoY and 3% over the previous quarter.

EBITDA margin could improve to 54.8%, compared to 54.5% in Q3FY25 and 51.5% in Q4FY24, indicating enhanced operational efficiency.

The ARPU may come around Rs 247, rising 18% YoY and 1% QoQ, supported by better customer realisation.

Also read: Pharma stocks in focus as Trump announces cut in prescription drug prices by 59%

Sharekhan

The company is likely to report net sales of Rs 47,528 crore for the quarter, registering a 26% YoY growth and a 5.3% increase sequentially.

The bottom line is likely to rise sharply to Rs 5,800 crore, jumping 97% YoY and 23% QoQ.

Operating profit margin (OPM) may improve significantly to 55.5%, expanding by 400 basis points compared to Q4FY24 and 100 basis points over Q3FY25, indicating enhanced efficiency and profitability.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)