Break below 25,100 may take Nifty down to 24,300: Analysts

NAGARAJ SHETTI
SENIOR TECHNICAL RESEARCH ANALYST, HDFC SECURITIES

Where is the Nifty headed?
A long bear candle has been formed on the daily chart of Nifty, indicating a sharp breakdown of a descending triangle-type pattern. The crucial opening upside gap of February 3 has almost been filled around 25,100 (left with a small margin). This is not a good sign. As per daily and weekly charts, Nifty remains weak, and any rise up to the 25,400 level could be a sell-on-rise opportunity. The next lower levels to be watched are around 24,700, and then 24,300 in the near term. Trading Strategies: One may look to sell Nifty March futures around 25,335–25,400 levels or consider buying Nifty 25,300 PE of March 30 expiry around Rs 332–300 for the potential downside in the index in the near term. Downside targets to be watched for Nifty spot are around 24,700, and then 24,300 for March expiry. Shorts should be placed with a strict stop loss at the Nifty spot around 25,400.

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Oil India: Buy at CMP Rs 485, Stop Loss: Rs 470, Target Rs 510

Stock price has moved above the support of the 10- & 20-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). Volume has expanded during the upside breakout in the stock price, and the daily relative strength index (RSI) shows a positive indication.

Muthoot Finance: Sell at CMP Rs 3,347, Stop Loss: Rs 3,450, Target: Rs 3,175

The crucial support of the 14 November opening upside gap area has broken on the downside at Rs 3,400 levels on Friday, and closed lower. It is presently showing a downside breakout from range-bound action.

MEHUL KOTHARI
DVP – TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ANAND RATHI SHARE AND STOCK BROKERS

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty remains in a corrective and consolidation phase after repeated rejection from the 25,800–26,000 resistance zone, and is currently trading near the critical 25,100 support area. As long as 25,100 holds, the broader structure remains constructive, and the index may attempt to stabilise. A decisive move above 25,800 would confirm a triangle breakout, and open the path for new highs, while a break below 25,100 would weaken the structure and call for a reassessment of the bullish view.

Trading Strategies: A sustained move above 25,800 may favour Bull Call Spreads, while a break below 25,100 could open opportunities for Bear Put Spreads. Until a clear breakout or breakdown emerges, range-based strategies such as Bull Put Spreads or Iron Condors may be considered within the 25,100–25,800 band. ETF investors should use the ongoing correction to accumulate Nifty in a staggered manner.

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Central Bank of India: Buy at Rs 39.5–38.5, Stop Loss: Rs 36.30, Target: Rs 44

As long as Rs 36.3 is protected, the setup remains constructive. The stock can be accumulated in Rs 39.5–38.5 range with a stop loss at Rs 36.3 and an upside target of Rs 44 over the next three months.

Hindustan Zinc: Buy at Rs 605–585, Stop Loss: Rs 545, Target Rs 700

The stock is forming a higher base after a controlled pullback with gradually improving momentum. As long as Rs 545 holds, the broader structure remains positive.

SACCHITANAND UTTEKAR
VP – RESEARCH (TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES), TRADEBULLS SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty spent most of last week with its daily RSI struggling to reclaim the 50 mark, reflecting weak momentum and limited buying conviction. Although it nearly filled the February 3 gap around 25,100, inability to sustain above key moving averages and the close below 200-day EMA in the final session tilt the near-term bias slightly negative. This raises the probability of a revisit to the 25,040–25,900 demand zone, where prior buying interest had emerged. On the upside, 25,630—which is aligned with the 50- DEMA, remains a critical resistance.

A decisive close above this level is essential for bulls to regain control. Options data suggests a compressed weekly range of 25,500–25,000. Strong Put writing at 25,000 indicates firm support for this series, while Call build-up near 25,500 caps weekly gains. The 25,400 strike remains an interesting pivot for this truncated week. Any abnormal unwinding here could precede a breakout from the 25,500–25,000 range.

Trading Strategies: For Nifty, a long–short trading approach remains prudent, as the index is likely to stay rangebound between 25,500 and 25,000. Buying near support and selling near resistance within this band could remain the preferred strategy for short-term traders.

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Strong long build-up and weekly ADX positioning above 25 signal strengthening trend momentum. The structure indicates the early phase of a bullish impulse wave, with potential to extend toward 4,000- plus in coming weeks if the breakout sustains.

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Daily ADX is repositioning for trend expansion, suggesting volatility may increase on the downside. The 722 level (200 MEMA support) is at risk. A decisive breach could accelerate selling pressure.