Earnings from bellwether Nvidia could play a pivotal role in the ongoing AI narrative, and decipher where a volatile market goes from here. “The bottom line now is it’s all about NVDA,” said Strategas’ Ryan Grabinski in a recent note to clients. “The direction of the market in the near term appears to be fully on the shoulders of this company.” Wall Street has come to view Nvidia as the barometer for the broader semiconductor and AI industries. The company has prevailed as the dominant — and most advanced — artificial intelligence chipmaker — supplying to the likes of Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft. Shares have rallied 159% since the start of the year. NVDA YTD mountain Shares this year Investors widely expect the chip behemoth to top estimates when it posts results after the bell Wednesday. LSEG estimates are currently bracing for earnings and revenue of 64 cents per share and $28.7 billion, respectively. All eyes remain on the company’s forecast, which has typically impacted the after-market stock action. But the company’s Blackwell chips also remain in focus following a report from The Information earlier this month about delays with its next-generation AI chips. Investors seemed to have shrugged off those concerns heading into the report, with shares up nearly 14% over the last month. However, concerns have begun to mount over the payoff for AI investments from hyperscalers as investors eagerly hunt for signs that demand continues to boom. “At the moment, they’re priced for perfection, everybody’s waiting to see, will the Blackwell chips be delivered on time. …,” Ray Wang, principal analyst and founder at Constellation Research, told CNBC’s ” Squawk Box ” on Tuesday. “It’s all focused on the forecast.” Strong guidance for the October quarter would showcase ongoing AI demand and quell some fears that spending on the infrastructure buildout has reached its peak. Analyst polled by LSEG estimate revenue will come in at $31.7 billion during the fiscal third quarter, representing 75% year-over-year growth. That would signal a deceleration from the 112.5% year-over-year growth expected this quarter. NVDA 1M mountain Shares over the last month UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri suggests that estimates for this so-called whisper number have edged up to between $33 billion and $34 billion. That’s up from a previous forecast of $31.7 billion and a consensus estimate of $31.6 billion, he noted. Blackwell concerns Nvidia shares fell last month following reports that the company is experiencing delayed production for its latest graphics processing unit ecosystem dubbed Blackwell. Those losses mounted as a global sell-off dented risk appetite across sectors. But many on Wall Street believe Nvidia has overcome the recent jitters, with the stock up 13% over the last month and 9% since the start of August. “Nvidia stock has largely shrugged off concerns around potential Blackwell delays — correctly so, in our view, as near-term business is strong and we will still see Blackwell ramp this year as per initial guidance,” wrote Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore. The analyst expects some Blackwell volume in October, followed by a “more material ramp” in the January quarter. Loop Capital’s Ananda Baruah added that heightened Hopper production may outweigh any Blackwell push out, although the firm didn’t anticipate “material volume” until July 2025. Evercore ISI’s Mark Lipacis called the Blackwell concerns “overdone,” adding that the company has a strong track record of bouncing back even if negative news fuels a 5% to 10% sell-off. “Furthermore, should a delay manifest, we believe demand is so strong, particularly at Tier 2 and 3 [cloud-computing solutions] and enterprises … that current generation Hopper solutions would be purchased even if Blackwell was pushed,” he added. Earlier this month, HSBC’s Frank Lee lifted his price target on the stock to $145 from $135 a share, noting that production changes are unlikely to impact the outlook for the second half of fiscal 2026. Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari reiterated his buy rating. “While the reported delay in Blackwell … could lead to some near-term volatility in fundamentals, we expect management commentary coupled with supply-chain data points over the coming weeks to lead to higher conviction as it pertains to Nvidia’s earnings power in CY2025,” he wrote. Elsewhere, Susquehanna’s Christopher Rolland views recent supply chain commentary from partners such as Super Micro Computer as a potential positive for Nvidia’s broader GPU demand. “We believe improving supply and availability of Hopper GPUs (H100/H200) should help fill the void in the meantime,” he wrote.
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