Citi CFO predicts 20% rise in investment banking fees

“The nature of spend is evolving,” Mason said at a conference hosted by Barclays Plc Monday. “It’s going from discretionary to a more staple-type spend.”

Net credit losses have climbed in Citi’s large cards business, and payment rates have started to “come down a bit,” he said, adding that it’s within ranges previously discussed by the firm. Meanwhile, more affluent customers are driving much of the spending growth.

Investors are closely watching consumer spending as a factor in predicting how the Federal Reserve will choose to cut interest rates. A softening labor market and a decline in the rate of inflation have fueled expectations that the central bank will lower borrowing costs later this month to stimulate spending.

Mason said that, on a full-year basis, net credit losses look to be about 3.5% to 4% in the company’s branded cards business and 5.75% to 6.25% in retail services.

The bank continues to see good growth in debt capital markets and mergers and acquisitions, while equity capital markets have been “under some pressure,” the CFO said. Investment-banking fees for the third quarter will probably be up about 20% compared to the previous year, he said, indicating a level below the 25% average estimate among analysts in a Bloomberg survey. 

Shares of the New York-based bank fell 0.4% to $58.88 at 11:47 a.m. in New York, the only major bank showing a decline on the day.

Citigroup’s fixed-income trading business is seeing performance consistent with consensus estimates, Mason said, meaning revenues are probably down about 4% compared to last year’s relatively strong third quarter. Cost of credit is expected to be about $2.7 billion, he added.

The CFO reiterated the bank’s full-year guidance, adding that it’s in a good position to address regulators’ concerns after it was hit with a fine of almost $136 million in July for failing to fix its data controls and risk management.