Crypto-based platform to Wager on US Prez poll

The trading firm Wintermute Trading, which offers liquidity for digital assets by buying and selling them in the crypto market, is collaborating with crypto risk manager Chaos Labs to launch a betting market next week that will focus on the outcome of the contest.

Many crypto exchanges that work with Wintermute have expressed interest in handling bets on the outcome, Gaevoy said, especially with Polymarket racking up almost $1 billion in wagers so far on the US election. Wintermute is developing the decentralized-finance software code, or so-called smart contracts, that allow anyone to interact directly instead of through intermediaries.

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“When we were thinking about the design of the smart contract, we thought how we can make it as decentralized as possible so just that everyone can use it,” Gaevoy said in an interview.The market will be available on multiple blockchains including Ethereum and Base, which was initially launched by crypto exchange Coinbase Global Inc. By doing so, any trading venue can list tokens representing former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris to allow users to speculate on the results of the November vote, Gaevoy said. Wintermute and other market makers will benefit by providing liquidity for the tokens on trading venues.

The market will use a blockchain-based oracle, or a data feed, developed by Chaos Labs. The oracle is designed to minimize the risks of human error influencing results, said Omer Goldberg, founder and chief executive officer Chaos Labs. Polymarket, which takes wagers on everything from election winners to whether the US will confirm the existence of aliens, and other exchanges like PredictIt and Kalshi have been seen by some observers as real-time gauges of sentiment on the presidential race. In 2022, Polymarket reached a settlement with the US regulators over allegations it ran an illegal unregistered platform for trading options contracts tied to real-world events. As part of the settlement, Polymarket agreed to block US-based traders from its platform, and amended its terms of service to prohibit use of a VPN to get around its system for blocking US-based transactions.

“It will be up to the trading venues that will list the market on how they manage the US exposure, but I’m pretty sure most of them, if not all of them, don’t allow US customers already,” Gaevoy said.