Evercore ISI cuts Birkenstock target to $70, maintains outperform By Investing.com

On Thursday, Evercore ISI adjusted its financial outlook on Birkenstock Holding plc (NYSE: NYSE:), reducing the footwear company’s price target from $77.00 to $70.00. Despite this change, the firm upheld its Outperform rating on the stock, signaling continued confidence in the company’s performance.

The revision follows Birkenstock’s third fiscal quarter results, which prompted analysts to reassess their valuation, albeit not due to a lack of demand or growth in the brand. The company experienced a significant acceleration in unit growth in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

The analyst cited the brand’s strategy to meet consumer demand across various channels as a positive trait, although it complicates short-term profit and loss forecasting due to different profit margins between direct-to-consumer (DTC) and wholesale transactions.

The analysis suggests that the stock’s recent pullback presents a buying opportunity, with the potential to acquire shares at roughly 17% below previous levels. This comes with no alteration to the analyst’s view that retailers globally continue to receive supply that falls short of strong consumer demand signals for the calendar year 2025.

Birkenstock’s approach, which prioritizes demand fulfillment irrespective of the sales channel, is highlighted as a consumer-friendly strategy.

However, it also leads to challenges in near-term financial predictions, as direct-to-consumer sales yield approximately double the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) compared to wholesale transactions.

In other recent news, Birkenstock Holding plc saw a solid currency-neutral sales growth of 19% in the third quarter, slightly below market expectations. The company’s business-to-business division performed well, but the direct-to-consumer channel experienced a slowdown.

Birkenstock reported an adjusted EBITDA of €186 million for the third quarter, aligning with projections from Goldman Sachs and Visible Alpha Consensus Data. The company’s management reaffirmed its full-year 2024 guidance, expecting a 20% growth in currency-neutral terms and an adjusted EBITDA margin between 30% and 30.5%.

Goldman Sachs maintained a Neutral rating on Birkenstock, adjusting its 12-month price target to $58.50. The third quarter demonstrated Birkenstock’s strong brand momentum, particularly within the B2B sector, which saw a 23% growth in cFx. However, the absence of an upgraded full-year outlook and a slowdown in DTC sales growth suggest limited potential for earnings surprises.

Birkenstock achieved its highest quarterly revenue in Q3 of fiscal year 2024, with a 19% increase in constant currency terms. Despite a slight decline in gross profit margin due to capacity expansion and a shift in channel mix, the adjusted EBITDA reached an all-time high of EUR186 million. Management expressed confidence in meeting the upper end of the fiscal year 2024 guidance for revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin.

InvestingPro Insights

As Birkenstock Holding plc (NYSE: BIRK) navigates through its fiscal period, recent data from InvestingPro provides a deeper understanding of the company’s financial standing. With a market capitalization of $11.4 billion and a robust revenue growth of 21.38% over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, Birkenstock demonstrates a strong market presence and an expanding business. Moreover, the company’s gross profit margin stands at an impressive 60.85%, highlighting its efficiency in maintaining profitability despite costs.

InvestingPro Tips indicate that analysts have a positive outlook on Birkenstock’s financial future, with net income expected to grow this year and six analysts revising their earnings upwards for the upcoming period. Additionally, Birkenstock’s ability to maintain liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations suggests a stable financial position for handling immediate liabilities. It’s worth noting that the company is trading at high valuation multiples, such as a P/E ratio of 104.36 and a Price/Book ratio of 4.03, which might reflect high investor expectations based on its recent performance, including a strong return over the last year with a 51.0% price total return.

For investors seeking comprehensive analysis and further insights, InvestingPro offers additional tips on Birkenstock’s financial metrics and performance trends. Interested readers can explore these in detail by visiting the InvestingPro platform.

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