Foot Locker stock ‘faces short-term uncertainty’ with weaker sales outlook

On Wednesday, Baird made a notable adjustment to the price target for Foot Locker (NYSE: NYSE:), reducing it from $35.00 to $27.00, while maintaining a Neutral stance on the stock. This decision reflects heightened concerns over the retailer’s short-term prospects despite a recent uptick in its share price.

The stock of Foot Locker has seen a 9% increase since early July, outperforming the S&P 1500’s 5% gain during the same period. This rise is partly due to investor confidence in the company’s ability to improve sales at full price, as evidenced by a 10% reduction in inventory year-over-year in the second fiscal quarter, and the potential for margin recovery over multiple years.

Despite the positive trajectory under CEO Mary Dillon’s initiatives, which are expected to bolster long-term earnings, Baird signals caution. The firm points to volatile sales performance, with weaker indicators in September following a stronger back-to-school season, and anticipates potential negative sentiment as the company faces challenging year-over-year comparisons in the October-December period.

Additional factors contributing to the uncertain outlook include a shorter holiday shopping window, with five fewer days this year compared to last, and possible market adjustments from Nike (NYSE:)’s expected leadership change. Baird suggests that these elements may introduce short-term uncertainty for Foot Locker.

Baird’s analysis indicates that there could be near-term downside risks for Foot Locker’s stock, potentially dipping into the low-$20s. This projection applies a next twelve months (NTM) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.5-13X to the firm’s lowered earnings estimates. The firm has also issued a Bearish Fresh Pick short-term trading call through November, expressing a guarded view of the stock’s immediate future.

In other recent news, Foot Locker has been experiencing significant developments. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has charged Barry Siegel, a former senior director at Foot Locker, with insider trading. The SEC alleges that Siegel used confidential company information to profit from short-selling Foot Locker shares ahead of two earnings announcements in 2023.

In terms of financial performance, Foot Locker reported a slight beat in sales, EBIT, and EPS for the second quarter of 2024. This growth was attributed to strong Foot Locker comparable store sales in North America and the EMEA region. Despite exceeding its gross margin plan for the second quarter, Foot Locker is adjusting its gross margin forecast for full fiscal year 2024 downward due to increased promotional activities.

Analysts at Seaport Global Securities maintained a neutral rating on Foot Locker following these results. In contrast, Telsey Advisory Group raised its price target for Foot Locker from $27.00 to $30.00, maintaining a Market Perform rating. Both firms highlighted Foot Locker’s recent sales growth and strategic changes.

Foot Locker is implementing significant strategic changes, including winding down operations in South Korea and parts of Europe, and relocating its headquarters to St. Petersburg, Florida. The company is also expanding its “Reimagined” store concept and enhancing its digital presence, with the goal of reaching 25% e-commerce penetration by 2026. These developments are part of Foot Locker’s ongoing Lace Up Plan, which focuses on elevating sneaker culture and transforming its real estate footprint.

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