- Rumor claims Nvidia has cut GeForce GPU production by 15% to 20%
- Apparently there are no new Blackwell gaming GPUs coming this year
- That theoretically rules out an RTX 5000 Super refresh, which many are anticipating for later in 2026
Nvidia‘s supply of chips to its graphics card-making partners is rumored to have been dropped by a considerable chunk, and there will be no new GeForce GPUs this year, we’re told.
The latest nugget of GPU misery comes from leaker MegasizeGPU, who, as Tom’s Hardware noticed, posted on X to say that Nvidia GPU supply has been cut by 15% to 20%.
In other words, the bundles of chips and video RAM that Team Green makes and sends to its third-party partners who actually build GeForce graphics cards (Asus, Gigabyte, MSI and so on) have been reduced to the tune of a fifth.
That’s a sizeable drop, although the good news the leaker points out is that Nvidia is still supplying chips with the necessary VRAM alongside them. (Another rumor suggested this would not be the case, and I’ll come back to why that’s important later).
So, while that’s something of a relief to hear, the leaker finishes on a sour note: “The bad news is that there will be no new product in 2026.”
In other words, you can forget those RTX 5000 Super refreshes which the grapevine has down for a late 2026 release, after being ‘delayed’ from an expected late 2025 arrival timeframe, which was what the initial rumors insisted. Although of course, all of this is speculation, so season everything mentioned here, and season it liberally.
Later in the thread on X, another poster raises the possibility of RTX 6000 graphics cards arriving early in 2027, and MegasizeGPU tells them this isn’t happening – and that they don’t know when Nvidia’s next-gen GPUs will turn up, as it’s “too early to talk about it” yet. (That seems fair enough, though other chatter suggests a late 2027 launch is possible for these cards).
It’s also worth noting that in a fresh development on the AMD front, a Gizmodo interview from CES 2026 has been aired (which was only published yesterday, as flagged via VideoCardz) in which an exec from Team Red made reassuring noises about the supply of Radeon GPUs.
The comments from AMD’s David McAfee, who is Corporate VP of the Client Channel Business, echoed what he said in another interview at CES regarding having “very strategic partnerships” with DRAM makers to ensure that “both the amount of supply that we need and the economics of what we’re able to buy from them are what we can support in our graphics business”.
However, McAfee added that he can’t predict the future (obviously), but that AMD has been trying to work with its graphics card making partners to maintain prices close to what Team Red suggests (the stated MSRPs).
Analysis: 16GB could be a challenging loadout for this year
As far as Nvidia goes, the good news in this bundle of rumors is that the company is still supplying VRAM alongside graphics chips for its third-party card-making partners. If that wasn’t the case – as another recent rumor suggested – it would have been a killer blow for smaller manufacturers. They would have really struggled to source their own GDDR7 memory in the current RAM crisis (which is why I was never overly convinced that this rumor had much in the way of legs, anyway).
The overall picture painted here, though, is rather dire. RTX 6000 GPUs aren’t even on the radar yet (though that’s no real surprise), and RTX 5000 Super refreshes are not coming in 2026 at all, if MegasizeGPU is correct. And a production hit to the tune of up to 20% in terms of the supply of Blackwell graphics card would be nasty – with fewer GPUs coming onto the shelves, prices would be likely to rise (especially with video memory getting pricier anyway, due to the mentioned RAM crisis).
All this comes against a backdrop of rumors that Nvidia is effectively giving up on a couple of mid-range Blackwell models that have 16GB of VRAM. Namely the RTX 5070 Ti and the version of the RTX 5060 Ti with 16GB (there’s another flavor of the latter with 8GB) – but this is something Nvidia has just denied is the case. According to Team Green, it is continuing to ship all current GeForce GPU models, and it’s “working closely with our suppliers to maximize memory availability”.
The trouble is that the world of RAM is clearly suffering – really badly – and AI GPUs are a priority because they make lots of money (not just for Nvidia, and I’ll return to that). Given that, it’s easy enough to believe that production levels of Blackwell GPUs could be hit in quite a nasty way, so that while the RTX 5070 Ti may be available and in production still, it might be very thin on the ground (and subject to going out of stock, and the price being hiked, as a result). In other words, technically Nvidia may still be pushing out the mentioned 16GB graphics cards, but it may be very tricky to get hold of them (at anywhere near the MSRP).
We’re in hypothetical territory here, of course, but a world where 8GB GPUs are the main choice – aside from the RTX 5070 12GB (and not counting the RTX 5080 and 5090 because they’re just too pricey for mainstream consumers) – is a prospect that isn’t a comforting thought for many PC gamers. Those who argue 8GB is just not enough these days, and we’ve covered that ground a lot recently (although it’s true that DLSS and frame generation can really help, at least with some games).
As to whether AMD might be able to capitalize on any wonky supply levels that Nvidia suffers, Team Red is, of course, facing the same VRAM woes too. It will surely be feeling the pressure with its own 16GB gaming GPUs, and the pull of making AI accelerators that use plenty of VRAM and are way more profitable products.
AMD might be making all the right noises about keeping prices close to MSRPs, but RDNA 4 GPUs have risen a good deal above those suggested price tags in the past, and that’s without all the complications of the RAM crisis.
All of which is to say that if you’re mulling a GPU upgrade in 2026, and you can find the graphics card you’re thinking about at anything like what seems a decent price, I’d probably buy now rather than hold on. And if your decision is based on waiting for the RTX Super refreshes for Blackwell, it’s looking more likely that these GPUs could be a long way off – if they even arrive at all.
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