Here’s the inflation breakdown for May 2024 — in one chart

Inflation fell slightly in May, as positive trends such as lower gasoline prices were counteracted by others including stubbornly high costs for housing.

Trends under the surface suggest the fight against inflation continues to bear fruit, albeit slowly, economists said.

The consumer price index, a key inflation gauge, rose 3.3% in May from a year ago, the U.S. Labor Department reported Wednesday. That’s down from 3.4% in April.

“I think this report reinforces the disinflationary narrative, that inflation is almost back in the bottle,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

The CPI gauges how fast prices are changing across the U.S. economy. It measures everything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts, concert tickets and household appliances.

The April inflation reading is down significantly from its 9.1% pandemic-era peak in 2022, which was the highest level since 1981. However, it remains above policymakers’ long-term target, around 2%.

The Federal Reserve uses inflation data to guide its interest rate policy. Economists expect the central bank to leave borrowing costs unchanged — at a roughly two-decade high — at the conclusion of its latest policy meeting later Wednesday.

However, the newest batch of inflation data supports the notion of an interest-rate cut in coming months, assuming the trajectory doesn’t change, economists said.

“We still need several more months of this, but the fundamentals are encouraging,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note Wednesday.

Consumers paid an average pump price of roughly $3.58 a gallon at the end of May, according to weekly data published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Gas prices have continued to decline since then: Average prices were $3.43 a gallon as of June 10.

There has also been a broad pullback in grocery prices.

Monthly “food at home” inflation has been at 0% or even negative for the past four months, according to CPI data.

“Food inflation has fallen back really sharply,” said Olivia Cross, a North America economist at Capital Economics.

That’s largely due to falling prices for agricultural commodities, in addition to others such as easing pressures in the labor market, she said.

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Shelter inflation has an outsized impact on CPI numbers because it’s by far consumers’ largest expenditure.

“It’s falling more slowly than people were hoping for,” said Michael Pugliese, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. “It moves at a glacial pace both up and down.”

That said, housing inflation is falling. It’s down from a peak over 8% in March 2023.

Economists expect it to continue to decline given prevailing real estate trends, but say it will likely take a while for that cycle to play out.

For example, market rents for new leases are flat and “haven’t gone anywhere for two years,” Zandi said.

“Basic [household] necessities — food, gas, rent — they’re all going nowhere fast, and that’s really very encouraging,” Zandi added.

Aside from housing, other categories with “notable increases” over the last year include motor vehicle insurance, up 20.3%; medical care, up 3.1%: recreation, up 1.3%; and personal care, up 2.9%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

Meanwhile, some categories have seen prices pull back. Broadly, physical goods prices excluding food and energy commodities declined by 1.7% in the past year, including a 9.3% reduction for used cars and trucks; airline fares are also down, by 5.9%.

Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers grew at a 4.1% annual pace in May, down from a peak near 6% in March 2022.

“From a wage inflation perspective, we’re still too high,” J.P. Morgan’s Seydl said.

However, data suggests wages will continue to cool from here, he added.