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There’s a software stock bucking the tech sell-off that reports earnings this week. I’ll break down various option trade scenarios into the earnings, focusing on one that will benefit from a big move in any direction. Adobe (ADBE) , which reports Thursday, is a global leader in digital media, marketing, and document management solutions. Its core business is centered around creative software, such as Photoshop, Illustrator, and Premiere Pro, used by professionals across industries for graphic design, video editing, and content creation. Adobe’s Creative Cloud subscription model generates recurring revenue and maintains a solid customer base, from freelancers to large enterprises. Adobe’s Document Cloud, featuring Acrobat and PDF solutions, is critical in digital document management and e-signatures. Adobe Experience Cloud is a key growth driver, offering tools for digital marketing, analytics, customer experience management, and advertising. As businesses increasingly shift to digital-first strategies, Adobe’s analytics and personalization technologies present significant opportunities. The rise of AI and machine learning also enhances Adobe’s value proposition. Its AI framework, Adobe Sensei, powers automation and predictive analytics in content creation, marketing, and user engagement. Adobe’s portfolio of digital products is expected to drive organic sales growth of 12% to 15% in constant currency over the next three years, with a non-GAAP operating margin of at least 45%, according to analyst estimates. Its generative AI tool, Firefly, could boost the average revenue per user. Adobe sets itself apart by offering built-in copyright protections for immediate commercial use despite growing competition from companies like OpenAI. Adobe revenues have grown 77% over the past five years, although the pace of growth has slowed slightly. Net income has grown by 85% over the same period, although, as the chart reveals, with considerably greater volatility. Net of buybacks, earnings per share have grown 99%. The company’s stock buyback plan, announced in March, aims to repurchase 10% of the shares outstanding, or $25 billion at the current price, over the next four years. Net income margins are an impressive 30%. Although Adobe has underperformed the S & P 500 by nearly 20% year-to-date, more recently, the stock gapped substantially higher when they reported earnings on June 14th. The company has outperformed the broader tech sector by 17.5% since June 13th. However, tech stocks have been among the most brutal hit in the market volatility since Labor Day. The trade This presents traders with a dilemma, and options markets reflect the indecision. Historically, Adobe’s earnings-related move has averaged about 5.4%, but the two most recent quarters saw substantially larger moves, which may be why options markets are currently implying a move of ~ 7.6% for the day following their earnings and 8.4% for the week overall. One way to mitigate a portion of the risk would be to trade an upside call calendar, selecting strikes corresponding to the implied move, such as a Sep/Jan $610 call spread. Of course, any bears out there could also use a calendar to bet on a downside move, using a $500 Sep/Jan put calendar. January expiration would likely experience a more modest “vol crush” than the nearer-dated options as they capture not only this week’s earnings but also December earnings and plenty of potential macro catalysts before year’s end. Combining the call and put calendar is a trade I usually refer to as a strangle swap. I’ve provided an example of that trade here : Sell Sep. 20 $500 Put Buy Jan. 17 $500 Put Sell Sep. 20 $610 Call Buy Jan. 17 $610 Call It could benefit from a move up or down by 8% to 9% between now and September’s expiration. DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/09/how-to-trade-adobes-upcoming-earnings-using-options.html
