Implementation of ‘guarantees’, decline of BRS favour Congress in Telangana, BJP aiming for better show

Hyderabad: Riding on its success in the recent Legislative Assembly polls, the ruling Congress in Telangana is banking on the implementation of its poll ‘guarantees’ to score big in the Lok Sabha elections, being held on May 13. An Assembly bypoll will also be held on that day in this southern state.

The morale of Congress cadre is high following the 2023 win.

The BJP, riding high on its growing voter base in Telangana, is now aiming to win over 12 out of the total 17 seats and 35 per cent vote share, in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

The party doubled its vote share to nearly 14 per cent resulting in eight seats in the assembly elections held on November 30, last year. BRS, which ruled the state for about a decade since its emergence, is low on morale following the defeat, even as its founder and former Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao‘s daughter K Kavitha was arrested on the eve of poll dates announcement, adding insult to the injury.

A SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis of political parties in Telangana.

CONGRESS STRENGTHS: -Congress is in power following its victory in the Assembly polls and momentum is on its side. -The implementation of the ‘guarantees’ announced before the Assembly elections by the Revanth Reddy government has generated goodwill for the party. -The popularity of CM Reddy. -Since it is in power, it has more access to resources to fight the polls. -Regarded as a secular party and minorities are believed to have voted for the party in the Assembly elections. -The BRS which was in power for 10 years is demoralised following its rout in the Assembly polls. The contest is mainly seen to be between Congress and BJP in the parliament elections. -Strong cadre at the grassroots level. -The party has already announced candidates for some seats.

WEAKNESSES: -The construction of Lord Ram temple at Ayodhya may swing devout Hindutva voters in favour of BJP. -The popularity of PM Narendra Modi would help the BJP and Congress may not be able to address this fully. OPPORTUNITIES: -Decline of BRS, and BJP lacking organisational strength in some constituencies. – CM Revanth Reddy, who is also PCC president, is regarded as an intelligent strategist. – Key issues like Ram temple and CAA may help the party get votes of minorities.

THREATS: -BJP’s aggressive campaign -Though BRS is down, it has announced that it will have an alliance with BSP for the Lok Sabha polls. In view of this, Congress needs to ensure that it gets the votes of Dalits and other backward sections in bulk.

BJP STRENGTHS: -Consecration of Ram temple at Ayodhya created a spiritual ambience among certain sections which can be transformed into electoral benefits. -Party’s clean image with respect to corruption -Strong leadership at the centre and their political shrewdness -Support from Sangh Pariwar, RSS affiliates like Vishva Hindu Parishad (VHP) and Bajrang Dal -Ability to polarise votes on a “communal” basis.

WEAKNESSES: -The party had to pitch turncoats at some segments -For every decision, the local leadership will have to look up to the central leadership. -There is a strong feeling among people that the BJP and BRS have a tacit understanding. -The removal of Bandi Sanjay as state president is still seen as a weakness of the party.

OPPORTUNITIES: -The party can claim some of the achievements, such as the Women Reservation Bill and the September 17 official celebration of Hyderabad Liberation Day, to its credit. -BJP may focus on negative aspects of Congress government’s “Six guarantees”.

THREATS: -After the Assembly polls, Congress formed the government in Telangana very recently and emerged as an alternative to BRS. So the positive feeling towards Congress still remains -Congress’ campaign may centre around the BJP and BRS’s alleged understanding. The BJP needs to counter it effectively. Congress may use it as one of the major poll issues. -Barring a few, there are hardly any crowd-pullers in the party locally.