India major gainer of China+1, exports to soar to $835 billion by 2030: Nomura

India’s exports will likely surge to $835 billion by 2030 from $431 billion in 2023 with its large domestic market helping attract firms looking for supply chain alternatives to China, Nomura said in a report on Tuesday.

“Firms in electronics, apparel & toys, automobile & components, capital goods and semiconductor manufacturing are looking to invest in India. Given India’s large domestic consumer market, firms setting up shop in India are attracted also because of the captive domestic market,” Nomura said, predicting a 10% annual growth over the period.

The global research firm expects electronics to become the fastest-growing sector, clocking a compound annual growth rate of 24% in exports, with value nearly tripling to $83 billion by 2030. Machinery exports will more than double to $61 billion by 2030 from $28 billion in 2023.

“We believe the low production linked incentive (PLI) disbursements are not a good reflection of India’s potential on global value chain integration. Its large market size, faster growth, lower labour cost and political and economic stability make it an attractive investment destination for consumer goods production to both cater to domestic demand and also for exports,” Nomura said, expecting India’s share of global trade to rise to 2.8% by 2030.

Nomura pointed out that competitiveness of Indian production is also likely to help accelerate exports and improve the country’s trade balance and current account. “This points to a structural case for currency appreciation,” it said.

Nomura’s survey of 130 enterprises also showed a growing interest for India and Vietnam.

“A majority of the investment into India are from US-based companies, especially in the electronics sector. Japan and Korea are also investing in India’s auto, consumer durable and electronics sectors to take advantage of the growing domestic demand and to use it as a manufacturing base,” Nomura said.

It added that strengthening of India’s manufacturing sector and its growing share in exports will help the corporate sector to sustain 12-17% earnings growth over the medium term.