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The 50-stock index edged lower by 486.85 points, or 2.09%, to close at 22,819.60.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said the index is trading below the 21-hour EMA, indicating sustained short-term bearish momentum. Additionally, the RSI has entered a bearish crossover, reinforcing the negative bias. “Given the prevailing market uncertainties, a sell-on-rise approach may remain suitable in the near term. Technically, any rebound towards 23,500 could face selling pressure, as this level is likely to act as an immediate resistance. On the downside, a break below 22,800 may lead to further weakness in the market,” De said.
1. Iran-Israel war
Already a month now, the Iran-Israel/US war has had a telling impact on global stock markets including India. Nifty is down nearly 9% since the war began on February 28. Unlike the previous two wars – first Russia-Ukraine and then Israel-Hamas, this one has unnerved the markets, the most. The war has now escalated from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea as Reuters report suggested Houthis fired on international shipping in the Red Sea, saying it was doing so in support of Palestinians. They also fired drones and missiles at Israel, which responded with air strikes on Houthi targets, the report said, adding the U.S. also launched strikes against the Houthis.
Meanwhile, citing Gulf sources, a separate Reuters report claimed Gulf Arab states are telling the U.S. that any deal with Tehran should do more than end the war, and must permanently curb Iran’s missile and drone capabilities and ensure global energy supplies are never again “weaponised”.
2. Local holidays
The coming week will have two holidays, indicating markets will rely more on the global cues.
The domestic stock markets will be closed on Tuesday, March 31 for Shri Mahavir Jayanti and on April 3 due to the Good Friday holiday.
3. US markets
While war-led sentiments will continue to linger on Wall Street, the US markets will also track next week’s U.S. employment report. The payrolls report for March is expected to show an estimated increase of 55,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%, according to Reuters data as of Friday. The report is due on April 3, when U.S. stock markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.
Frontline indices ended sharply lower, with all three major indices posting significant losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 793.47 points, or 1.73%, to close at 45,166.64, while the S&P 500 fell 108.31 points, or 1.67%, to 6,368.85. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the losses, dropping 459.72 points, or 2.15%, to settle at 20,948.36, reflecting broad-based selling pressure across sectors, particularly in technology stocks.
4. Crude oil
Global benchmark crude oil prices remain elevated, raising inflation concerns. Any further spike in price could lead to further sell-off in global equity markets, including India.
The US WTI crude oil futures ended at $101.180 per barrel on Friday, gaining $6.70 or 7.09% in a single session while Brent witnessed a surge of 6.07% or $6.56 per barrel to close at $114.57.
5. FII / DII action
Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) continued their selling trends through March, offloading equities worth Rs 1.14 lakh crore. So far in 2026, the net outflows stand at Rs 1.27 lakh crore
On Friday, FIIs sold domestic shares at Rs 4,367.30 crore while DIIs were net buyers at Rs 3,566.15 crore.
6. Technical triggers
Commenting on the current trends, Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services said the index has decisively breached the 23,000 psychological mark and remains firmly entrenched below its 200-day EMA, signaling a deepening bearish trend.
“For the coming week, the 22,500–22,470 zone (Monday’s panic low) stands as the final make-or-break level; a breakdown here could accelerate the decline toward 22,000. On the upside, 23,150 and 23,500 now act as stiff overhead hurdles. Strategy remains sell on rise until the index decisively reclaims 23,500. Expect continued volatility as the India VIX surged 9% following fresh geopolitical uncertainty and FII outflows,” Singh said.
7. Rupee Vs dollar
Rupee movement against the US dollar will be closely tracked.
The Indian rupee touched a record low of 94.84 on Friday, down nearly 1%, as global markets contended with considerable volatility due to worries about a sustained disruption of global energy supplies due to the Middle East conflict.
India’s central bank on Friday directed banks to limit their net open positions on the rupee in the foreign exchange market to $100 million at the end of each business day, with authorized dealers required to comply by April 10.
The order comes when the rupee has hit a string of record lows as worries over the spillovers from the Iran war sent the currency down 4% against the dollar.
The rupee has now fallen by more than 11% in the current financial year with 5.5% of it coming in just this quarter, Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP said. “The rupee is expected to be within the levels of 94.25 to 95.25 on Monday the last day of the year with the rupee having depreciated more than 10% during the financial year with more than 5% coming in the last quarter,” he added.
8. IPO watch
The primary market is set for a quiet week, with no new IPOs scheduled in either the mainboard or SME segments. In the holiday-shortened period, attention will centre on the listing of Coal India’s subsidiary, Central Mine Planning and Design Institute Ltd (CMPDI). Besides this, six companies are slated to debut on the exchanges following their public issues—three from the mainboard and the rest from the SME segment.
The mainboard listings for IPOs are Sai Parenteral’s, Powerica, Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar while the SME listings include Speciality Medicines, Tipco Engineering India and Highness Microelectronics.
Read more: IPO Calendar: No fresh issues next week; Coal India subsidiary, 6 more companies set to debut
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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