Nifty: A bearish Nifty faces resistance at 23,000: Analysts

All key technical indicators have turned bearish, signalling sustained selling pressure at higher levels. As long as Nifty stays below 23,000 mark, weakness could extend towards 22,700–22,500 zone, say technical analysts. On the upside, resistance is placed at 23,000, with the next hurdle at 23,333. Despite broader weakness, stock-specific bullish setups are visible in Marico, Bajaj Finance, Max Healthcare, HDFC Bank, Tata Consumer, MFSL, Indus Towers, Nestle, Pidilite Industries, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever, and Apollo Hospitals.

CHANDAN TAPARIA
HEAD – TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES, MOTILAL OSWAL FINANCIAL SERVICES

Where is Nifty headed?
India’s VIX jumped over 8% last week due to tariff concerns. However, compared to global markets, the rise in India VIX has been limited, showing that the fear hasn’t fully spilled over the Indian markets yet. Nifty is trading below all short term moving averages and showing signs of weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown a bearish crossover on daily chart and is approaching a bearish setup on weekly chart. On both daily and weekly charts, Nifty has formed bearish candles with upper shadows, suggesting selling pressure at higher levels. As long as Nifty remains below 23,000, weakness may extend towards 22,700 and 22,500 zones. On the upside, resistance is seen at 23,000 followed by 23,333 levels. What could investors do?
Sectors like IT, auto, metal, and pharma have come under pressure due to concerns arising from Trump’s new tariff plan. However, the focus is likely to shift towards relatively stronger pockets such as FMCG, banking, and NBFCs, which are expected to remain in the spotlight amid the ongoing volatility. Stock-wise bullish setups are seen in Marico, Bajaj Finance, Max Healthcare, HDFC Bank, Tata Consumer, MFSL, Indus Towers, Nestle, Pidilite Industries, ICICI Bank, HUL, and Apollo Hospitals; while weakness in Hindustan Copper, National Aluminium, Vedanta and Tata Steel, among others.

MEHUL KOTHARI
AVP – TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ANAND RATHI SHARES & STOCK BROKERSWhere is the Nifty headed?
For Nifty, 22,900–22,600 zone is emerging as a strong support area. If the index manages to rebound from this zone, there is a potential formation of a bullish inverse Head and Shoulder pattern, with the current dip possibly forming the right shoulder. While it’s too early to confirm, a breakout above 23,800 would validate this pattern and open the door for further upside. A break below 22,600 could trigger some panic, but the bears will only gain a decisive upper hand if the index breaches the 22,300 mark. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 23,250. A sustained move above this level could encourage bulls and lend strength to the possibility of the bullish pattern playing out. What should investors do?
It’s a time of uncertainty with the ongoing trade war worries lingering in the backdrop. Traders should go long only above 23,250 with protective puts, targeting 23,800 if the bullish inverse H&S pattern plays out. Dips near 22,900–22,600 offer low-risk entries with tight stop-losses. A break below 22,300 fl ips the trend decisively bearish, so caution is key. Investors can accumulate selectively on dips but go heavy only above 23,800.

DHARMESH SHAH
HEAD OF TECHNICAL, ICICI SECURITIES

Where is the Nifty headed?
Indian equity benchmarks corrected 2.5% last week. This week, we expect Nifty to consolidate in the broader range of 23,500-21,900 wherein stock-specifi c action would continue amid elevated volatility with the onset of the Q4 earnings season, coupled with RBI Policy, tariff developments, and US infl ation print. Structurally, the index is undergoing a healthy retracement as over the past eight sessions it has merely retraced 50% of the earlier six sessions’ upmove, highlighting consolidation in the coming weeks.

What could investors do?
We expect volatility to remain elevated. Investors should focus on domestic themes rather than global ones and focus on accumulating quality stocks (backed by strong earnings) in a staggered manner. Banking, NBFC, power, defence and hospitality sectors will be in focus. Kotak Bank, Bajaj Finance, HAL, Apollo Hospitals, Lemon Tree, and HPCL look good.