Nifty’s 7% surge in March so far is engineered by a rare triple. But can it pass the Trump test?

Nifty’s 7% surge in March so far is engineered by a rare triple move where stock markets are moving up, bond yields are down and rupee is moving up against the dollar. This happenstance could lead to further upside, says market expert Sandip Sabharwal who sees markets in good stead “directionally”.

Sabharwal said that the probability of markets building up on the current gains is high.

“The rally which has come about has taken a lot of people by surprise and many people, investors domestically at least, resorted to what is also called loss harvesting where they thought that since they do not want to pay tax this year, so they sold off equities for saving tax, capital gains tax for this year in the hope of buying them cheaper,” he said.

“Many of them are now sitting on cash and markets have rallied. So, fundamentally also if you see, the triple move which we have seen is very rare. Stock markets moving up, bonds moving up, i.e., bonds yield moving down and the rupee moving up, all three happening together, that by itself is a good macroeconomic indicator,” this analyst said.

Nifty has seen an over 1,500 points rally till now after a drubbing that has lasted for five consecutive months till February which is also the longest losing streak since the launch of this heartbeat index in 1996.

The Indian rupee has staged a strong recovery after months of weakness, rebounding by 2% from its February lows following a nearly 4% decline between November 2024 and February 2025. On Monday, the INR jumped 34 paise to close at 85.64 (provisional) against US dollar.March is a seasonally strong month for Nifty bulls as the headline index has ended positive on seven occasions in the last 10 years. The 50-stock index’s highest March month gains in a decade stood at 11% in 2016 on the back of buying by foreign investors. But really, we have a big event coming in a week or so, which is the tariff announcements by the US, which will put this rally to test.Deepak Shenoy, Founder of Capital Mind calls April 2 a big event coming in a week. The Trump tariffs will kick-in and the announcements by the US. “Repercussions of what has happened in the past with aluminium and steel tariffs in the US impacting US inflation, Canadian tariffs affecting Canada and US accordingly. A lot of these impacts are yet to be seen. So, I would not be overjoyed by the markets going up just now,” he said.

Echoing a similar sentiment, Om Ghawalkar, Market Analyst, Share.Market said that the upcoming events such as April’s tariff rate adjustments and the Q4 earnings season could significantly impact future movements.

While the current rally is promising, investors must remain cautious and closely monitor market responses to evolving economic conditions before drawing conclusions about the long-term trend, he warned.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)