Oil falls as potential Ukraine peace deal may ease supply disruptions

Oil prices fell on Thursday on expectations a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia would mean the end of sanctions that have disrupted supply flows and U.S. President Donald Trump’s intention to introduce reciprocal tariffs stoked inflation jitters.

Brent futures were down 55 cents, or 0.73%, at $74.63 a barrel by 0141 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 52 cents, or 0.73%, to $70.85.

Brent and WTI fell more than 2% on Wednesday after Trump said Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed a desire for peace in separate phone calls with him, and Trump ordered top U.S. officials to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer and sanctions imposed on its crude exports as a result of its invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago has supported higher prices.

Analysts at ANZ said in a note on Thursday oil prices eased on news of the potential peace talks because of “optimism that risks to crude oil supplies would ease.”

The ANZ analysts pointed to the sanctions by the U.S. and EU pushing Russia’s output lower. “Signs of tightening supply have been pushing up oil prices in recent weeks. U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies and vessels are said to have exacerbated the situation,” they said. Trump’s threat of additional tariffs against U.S. trade partners also pressured prices because of concerns that may reduce economic growth and therefore oil demand.

Trump said he would impose reciprocal tariffs as soon as Wednesday evening on every country that charges duties on U.S. imports, in a move that ratchets up fears of a widening global trade war and threatens to accelerate U.S. inflation.

A build in crude oil inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer, also weighed on the market.

U.S. crude stocks rose more than expected last week, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday.

Crude inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels to 427.9 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 7, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3 million-barrel rise.