Oil India shares rally 5% as Avendus sees stock doubling over 3 years

Shares of state-run Oil India climbed as much as 5% on Wednesday to Rs 459.10 on the BSE after brokerage Avendus Spark initiated coverage on the upstream oil explorer with a “buy” rating and a target price of Rs 630, calling it a “doubler in three years.”

The target price of Rs 630 implies a potential upside of over 37% from the stock’s intraday high on Wednesday. Avendus cited “high-octane growth at low valuation” and more than 80% earnings growth potential over the next three years, calling it “a rarity in the sector.”

Volume-led growth

The brokerage highlighted that Oil India’s growth would be “entirely volume led,” backed by a “tripling of NRL capacity” and “mid-high single digit upstream production growth.” The NRL (Numaligarh Refinery) project remains “on track for Dec’25 completion,” with the resulting earnings boost expected from FY27 onwards.

In the upstream segment, “infra projects provide better visibility on production growth,” while “New Well Gas pricing could be an added positive,” the brokerage said. Although Avendus sees a “reasonable probability of commodity upsides,” it clarified that these are “not pencilled in our numbers.”

The brokerage also noted that the “recent correction in commodity prices presents an extremely favourable entry point” and that “downside risks (are) more than priced in.”Technical & share performanceOil India shares have delivered over 127% returns in the last three years. The stock has risen 25.4% in the past three months and nearly 9% in the last one week. However, it is down 3% over the past six months and up 12.4% over the past year.

On the technical front, the stock is trading above seven of its eight key simple moving averages (5-day to 150-day SMAs), but remains below its 200-day SMA.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61.2, indicating bullish momentum without being overbought. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at 6.8, staying above the center line but below the signal line.

According to Trendlyne data, out of 19 analysts tracking the stock, 15 have a ‘buy’ rating, 2 recommend ‘hold’, while the remaining 2 suggest ‘sell’.

Also read | Oil India Q4 Results: Profit falls 21% on lower oil prices

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