Oil Price Today (April 10): Crude oil prices near $100 again as Iran war tensions escalate despite ceasefire. $150 in sight?

Oil prices edged higher in early Friday trade after fresh attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and continued concerns around the closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept investors on edge, even as a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran remained in place.

The conflict has already taken a toll on energy infrastructure. Around 50 assets across the Gulf have been hit by drone and missile strikes over the past six weeks, with roughly 2.4 million barrels per day of refining capacity knocked offline, JPMorgan said.

Crude oil price on April 10

Brent crude futures rose 83 cents, or 0.87%, to $96.75 a barrel at 0100 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed $1.04, or 1.06%, to $98.91 a barrel.Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely disrupted, operating at less than 10% of normal levels on Thursday. This comes despite the ceasefire, as Iran warned vessels to remain within its territorial waters while passing through the route, Reuters reported.

Investor sentiment has also been weighed down by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump. In a post on Truth Social, he said American military assets, including ships, aircraft and personnel, will continue to remain stationed in and around Iran along with additional ammunition and weaponry until a final agreement is honoured.

He cautioned that failure to uphold the terms could lead to military action on a much larger scale, although he added that such an outcome is unlikely. Trump also reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and that the Strait of Hormuz would stay open and secure. For now, he said, the U.S. military remains on standby.

What’s next for prices?

Brokerage firm Macquarie noted that even if tensions ease, oil prices are likely to stay supported in the $85 to $90 range, with a gradual move toward $110 as flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalise. It added that if disruptions extend through April, Brent could still rise to $150 per barrel.

Market experts believe crude may be entering a structurally higher price phase. Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President at Religare Broking, said the current ceasefire is temporary and a return to pre-war levels of $70 to $75 could take several months. In the near term, he expects crude to remain within a range of $80 to $85 on the downside and $95 to $100 on the upside.

Analysts also point out that as long as tensions persist, the outlook for crude remains volatile with an upward bias. Continued disruptions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, are likely to keep supply tight, supporting both Brent and WTI prices and maintaining inflationary pressures globally.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)