Bill Gates is a one of the stand-out technology pioneers, and has experienced his fair share of hype cycles, having led Microsoft for so many years. When new technologies emerge, it’s normal to get excited – but sometimes the rate of progress and the expectations of not just consumers but other businesses fail to match the reality of innovation.
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the ten.”
Technology hype cycles
The ‘Road Ahead’ was a huge bestseller and drew a lot of attention when it launched in 1995. Author Bill Gates, who was CEO and chairman of Microsoft at the time, used the book to opine on various philosophical and technological themes. One highlight in particular was a segment on technological hype cycles and the attitude of people toward innovation.
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The first part of the quote – highlighting our fixation on where innovation might lead immediately – alludes to the immediate spike in media attention, excitement and, sometimes, overcommitment. We’ve seen that time and again over history – with AI a great example of a technology that’s undergone numerous hype cycles since the 1960s.
We also fail to capture the reality of compounding gains over many years – with technologies needing not just breakthroughs but ecosystems and support layers. Over the period of a decade or so, we may not realise the small gains made along the way – but zoom and suddenly you realise how different things really are.
Excitement about the future
Exciting technologies today, including AI, threaten to follow in the footsteps of breakthroughs of yesterday, like the internet, smartphones, or even social media.
With expectations heightened, patience narrowing and technology exponentially improving, there’s an argument to make that the situation is getting worse, not better, compared with when Bill Gates wrote that sentence in 1995.
Quantum computing is a prime example of how many, including investors, overestimate where the technology might be within a couple of years, projecting the lack of visible improvement forward – to the extent where many write off the tech altogether. Now, however, scientists expect us to build a superpowerful machine by 2030.
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