Sanjiv Bhasin stocks: Why Sanjiv Bhasin is betting big on this IT stock

“There are no free lunches. Only if you are there will you participate in this. But a large part of the market is now, particularly the over-owned PSUs are now looking a little frothy,” says Sanjiv Bhasin, Director, IIFL Securities.

Yesterday, FII were buying. They were very big buyers. So, are you saying we should sell?
Of course. It is time to be greedy. It is time to be fearful. At 22,500 when it was lock, stock and barrel known that sitting in Singapore or US you have no clue what the election trends are. Neither did I have as much, but I still was privy that whatever has to play out will play out on Monday or Tuesday. And lo and behold, you have the exit poll and suddenly a 700-point rally. How long back have you seen that a 700-point rally? So, I am not belittling what they are, but common sense in 35 years has told me greed and fear go hand in hand.

And similarly, the trends have been visible whenever there has been a herd mentality. Indian retail investor is here to stay, so hats off to him. And that is what has been the real icing on the cake. Now, I am also in the camp that you have to stay invested. There are no free lunches. Only if you are there will you participate in this. But a large part of the market is now, particularly the over-owned PSUs are now looking a little frothy. I think there is a lot of value over there. So, pick and choose. Index, I would be neutral.
For the short-term players, you are saying profit take, that is the clear messaging. Within PSUs, where are the stocks or the segments where you would say profit take or is it across the board call?
Defence, railways across the board. My two picks, which I still think are value picks or excellent IRCTC, Concor, you do your diligence, but do not get chased by the momentum. Let me be frank. The whole mutual fund industry has been very-very underweight on PSUs for the last many-many months and now everything is catching up. Commodities, metals, wherever the left out feeling. I am not saying that they are going to fall overnight. See the risk on the table is less. You do not want to be burned right at the top and then see a 15% correction and then forward. So, I think taking money there off. But private banks, like I told you, UltraTech, a lot of those like ABFRL, Vodafone and Rattan Power that Rs 9.50 stock is locked at 20.25.
This is the data, 2-2.5% even though markets they loved the verdict. So, could the same happen that markets will like the verdict and one week we may not see a sizable change?
One week from now, whatever rally you get, please sell and sit on the side, go for a vacation. The budget, whatever it comes, will have uncertainties and taking money off the cues over there is a very-very good ploy. June is a very hot month. It is very good if you go on vacation.

But picking up that point with the AB Group, I want you to come in here. What gives you this kind of conviction on Vodafone? You have been bullish from what, 7 odd levels?
No, about 10-11 levels. And correctly so, see, there was a case for survival. You always called it 2.25, 2.5. It is a third player now. ARPU is at 142, 42% EBITDA and now when they are saying the 5G expansion comes with the liquidity, also if you recall what yesterday Indus Tower has said, we will be very-very conducive to the type of arrangement of payback and I think that the way they have restructured the whole thing with government now taking 33% stake.
I mean, Bharti is a $100 billion company. How can this languish at 1 lakh, 1.5 lakh? So, I still think there is a lot of room on the upside. It will take time. But the icing on the cake would be the AGR verdict which will be very positive.

Another stock which is a dark horse and I have been bullish for two years and maybe had to be very patient is ABSL AMC. That yes, yesterday broke out. The stock according to me came at a price of 720 at the IPO. It never retested that in the last two years. Just yesterday, it is the highest closing. ABSL AMC is headed back to 700 and more. The underlying business remains extremely positive that is AMCs are here to stay for the next 20-30 years. And if you can get good names, then that makes your journey even more better.

And I will pick up Wipro here. Why an IT stock and why an IT stock which has underperformed within the IT basket.
I think the weakness in IT is because the money is chasing the high momentum. I think Wipro has been a far out performer in the pack of IT. But what I have in the knowledge is that the Microsoft tie-up is going to lead to a bigger thing.

You have already seen a change of guard with the previous management being done away or changing and I think now there is an inevitable change which can take place at the higher level.

The corporate event is something which I am playing for. Wipro’s earnings have been far in ahead of any of the IT stocks. It trades at half the multiple of an Infosys, TCS and HCL Tech.

And I think that arguably it is the best IT stock for me in 2024. Plus, I want to be slightly defensive and invested and not chase momentum which I think may lack in the second half of the day. So, be watchful, do not get caught in the whole realm because a large part of the play out has taken place yesterday.